Recent flash drought intensification across the South-Central U.S. and Northern Plains, fueled by prolonged below-normal precipitation and above-average temperatures, represents the main driver behind current trader positioning on D4 counts for the week of September 8. Official U.S. Drought Monitor data valid September 1 show exceptional drought (D4) covering 1.4% of the contiguous U.S., with degradations reported in Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, Missouri, and portions of the Dakotas and Upper Midwest, while isolated improvements occurred in Colorado and Wyoming. A strengthening El Niño, with Niño-3.4 anomalies exceeding +1.8°C and greater than 90% odds of a very strong event through winter, introduces additional uncertainty for short-term moisture patterns and potential model divergence in precipitation forecasts. Historical baselines indicate D4 episodes typically affect only a handful of states at peak, supporting the market's emphasis on monitoring the next weekly update for confirmation of expansion or stabilization.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHow many states will be in D4 (Exceptional Drought) — week of September 8, 2026?
How many states will be in D4 (Exceptional Drought) — week of September 8, 2026?
10 or more states 62%
3-4 states 37%
1-2 states 37%
0 states 36%
NEW
NEW
Sep 10, 2026
0 states
36%
1-2 states
37%
3-4 states
37%
5-6 states
34%
7-9 states
36%
10 or more states
62%
10 or more states 62%
3-4 states 37%
1-2 states 37%
0 states 36%
NEW
NEW
Sep 10, 2026
0 states
$0 Vol.
36%
1-2 states
$0 Vol.
37%
3-4 states
$0 Vol.
37%
5-6 states
$0 Vol.
34%
7-9 states
$0 Vol.
36%
10 or more states
$0 Vol.
62%
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the number of coterminous US states (out of 48) with D4 percent area of 0.05% or more in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of September 8, 2026.
Brackets: 0 / 1-2 / 3-4 / 5-6 / 7-9 / 10+. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes".
The count ranges over all 48 coterminous states — the 48 states excluding Alaska and Hawaii. The District of Columbia and U.S. territories are not considered.
Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.
Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final.
The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.Recent flash drought intensification across the South-Central U.S. and Northern Plains, fueled by prolonged below-normal precipitation and above-average temperatures, represents the main driver behind current trader positioning on D4 counts for the week of September 8. Official U.S. Drought Monitor data valid September 1 show exceptional drought (D4) covering 1.4% of the contiguous U.S., with degradations reported in Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, Missouri, and portions of the Dakotas and Upper Midwest, while isolated improvements occurred in Colorado and Wyoming. A strengthening El Niño, with Niño-3.4 anomalies exceeding +1.8°C and greater than 90% odds of a very strong event through winter, introduces additional uncertainty for short-term moisture patterns and potential model divergence in precipitation forecasts. Historical baselines indicate D4 episodes typically affect only a handful of states at peak, supporting the market's emphasis on monitoring the next weekly update for confirmation of expansion or stabilization.
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the number of coterminous US states (out of 48) with D4 percent area of 0.05% or more in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of September 8, 2026.
Brackets: 0 / 1-2 / 3-4 / 5-6 / 7-9 / 10+. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes".
The count ranges over all 48 coterminous states — the 48 states excluding Alaska and Hawaii. The District of Columbia and U.S. territories are not considered.
Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.
Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final.
The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.
Brackets: 0 / 1-2 / 3-4 / 5-6 / 7-9 / 10+. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes".
The count ranges over all 48 coterminous states — the 48 states excluding Alaska and Hawaii. The District of Columbia and U.S. territories are not considered.
Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.
Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final.
The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.
Market Opened: Sep 3, 2026, 9:00 AM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 10, 2026Market Opened
Sep 3, 2026, 9:00 AM ETResolution Source
https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/DmData/DataTables.aspxResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the bracket containing the number of coterminous US states (out of 48) with D4 percent area of 0.05% or more in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of September 8, 2026.
Brackets: 0 / 1-2 / 3-4 / 5-6 / 7-9 / 10+. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes".
The count ranges over all 48 coterminous states — the 48 states excluding Alaska and Hawaii. The District of Columbia and U.S. territories are not considered.
Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.
Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final.
The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.Recent flash drought intensification across the South-Central U.S. and Northern Plains, fueled by prolonged below-normal precipitation and above-average temperatures, represents the main driver behind current trader positioning on D4 counts for the week of September 8. Official U.S. Drought Monitor data valid September 1 show exceptional drought (D4) covering 1.4% of the contiguous U.S., with degradations reported in Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, Missouri, and portions of the Dakotas and Upper Midwest, while isolated improvements occurred in Colorado and Wyoming. A strengthening El Niño, with Niño-3.4 anomalies exceeding +1.8°C and greater than 90% odds of a very strong event through winter, introduces additional uncertainty for short-term moisture patterns and potential model divergence in precipitation forecasts. Historical baselines indicate D4 episodes typically affect only a handful of states at peak, supporting the market's emphasis on monitoring the next weekly update for confirmation of expansion or stabilization.
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the number of coterminous US states (out of 48) with D4 percent area of 0.05% or more in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of September 8, 2026.
Brackets: 0 / 1-2 / 3-4 / 5-6 / 7-9 / 10+. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes".
The count ranges over all 48 coterminous states — the 48 states excluding Alaska and Hawaii. The District of Columbia and U.S. territories are not considered.
Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.
Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final.
The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.
Brackets: 0 / 1-2 / 3-4 / 5-6 / 7-9 / 10+. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes".
The count ranges over all 48 coterminous states — the 48 states excluding Alaska and Hawaii. The District of Columbia and U.S. territories are not considered.
Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.
Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final.
The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 10, 2026Market Opened
Sep 3, 2026, 9:00 AM ETResolution Source
https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/DmData/DataTables.aspxResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent flash drought intensification across the South-Central U.S. and Northern Plains, fueled by prolonged below-normal precipitation and above-average temperatures, represents the main driver behind current trader positioning on D4 counts for the week of September 8. Official U.S. Drought Monitor data valid September 1 show exceptional drought (D4) covering 1.4% of the contiguous U.S., with degradations reported in Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, Missouri, and portions of the Dakotas and Upper Midwest, while isolated improvements occurred in Colorado and Wyoming. A strengthening El Niño, with Niño-3.4 anomalies exceeding +1.8°C and greater than 90% odds of a very strong event through winter, introduces additional uncertainty for short-term moisture patterns and potential model divergence in precipitation forecasts. Historical baselines indicate D4 episodes typically affect only a handful of states at peak, supporting the market's emphasis on monitoring the next weekly update for confirmation of expansion or stabilization.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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