South Carolina's 4th congressional district maintains a solid Republican lean with an R+11 Partisan Voter Index, where incumbent William Timmons secured his party's nomination in the June 9 primary by a wide margin over challengers. Democrat Courtney McClain advanced unopposed in her primary, but nonpartisan ratings classify the November 3 general election contest as Solid or Safe Republican, consistent with the district's recent voting patterns including a 16.5-point Republican presidential margin in 2024. Traders price the Republican outcome at 91.5% based on these structural factors and the absence of competitive Democratic infrastructure or polling shifts that would alter the baseline. Late developments such as major national realignments, candidate-specific issues, or turnout surprises could still narrow the gap before election day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedSC-04 House Election Winner
SC-04 House Election Winner
$43,176 Vol.
$43,176 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Republican Party
92%
Democratic Party
7%
$43,176 Vol.
$43,176 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Republican Party
$19,733 Vol.
92%
Democratic Party
$23,443 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the SC-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).South Carolina's 4th congressional district maintains a solid Republican lean with an R+11 Partisan Voter Index, where incumbent William Timmons secured his party's nomination in the June 9 primary by a wide margin over challengers. Democrat Courtney McClain advanced unopposed in her primary, but nonpartisan ratings classify the November 3 general election contest as Solid or Safe Republican, consistent with the district's recent voting patterns including a 16.5-point Republican presidential margin in 2024. Traders price the Republican outcome at 91.5% based on these structural factors and the absence of competitive Democratic infrastructure or polling shifts that would alter the baseline. Late developments such as major national realignments, candidate-specific issues, or turnout surprises could still narrow the gap before election day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the SC-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
Volume
$43,176End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the SC-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).South Carolina's 4th congressional district maintains a solid Republican lean with an R+11 Partisan Voter Index, where incumbent William Timmons secured his party's nomination in the June 9 primary by a wide margin over challengers. Democrat Courtney McClain advanced unopposed in her primary, but nonpartisan ratings classify the November 3 general election contest as Solid or Safe Republican, consistent with the district's recent voting patterns including a 16.5-point Republican presidential margin in 2024. Traders price the Republican outcome at 91.5% based on these structural factors and the absence of competitive Democratic infrastructure or polling shifts that would alter the baseline. Late developments such as major national realignments, candidate-specific issues, or turnout surprises could still narrow the gap before election day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the SC-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$43,176End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...South Carolina's 4th congressional district maintains a solid Republican lean with an R+11 Partisan Voter Index, where incumbent William Timmons secured his party's nomination in the June 9 primary by a wide margin over challengers. Democrat Courtney McClain advanced unopposed in her primary, but nonpartisan ratings classify the November 3 general election contest as Solid or Safe Republican, consistent with the district's recent voting patterns including a 16.5-point Republican presidential margin in 2024. Traders price the Republican outcome at 91.5% based on these structural factors and the absence of competitive Democratic infrastructure or polling shifts that would alter the baseline. Late developments such as major national realignments, candidate-specific issues, or turnout surprises could still narrow the gap before election day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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