United Russia maintains a commanding lead in the State Duma election market due to its entrenched position as the ruling party aligned with President Vladimir Putin, combined with extensive institutional control over candidate registration, media access, and the multi-day voting process scheduled for September 18–20, 2026. Recent developments, including the Supreme Court’s annulment of Yabloko’s party list and restrictions on other opposition figures, have further narrowed competition among registered parties such as the CPRF, LDPR, and New People. While polls show some erosion in United Russia’s support amid the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, the party’s structural advantages—including single-mandate districts and administrative resources—underpin trader expectations of a large majority. Realistic challenges remain limited to unforeseen late developments such as major scandals or sharp shifts in elite alignments, though these appear improbable given the tightly managed environment.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedUnited Russia (ER) 99.0%
Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) <1%
New People (NL) <1%
Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) <1%
$3,393,277 Vol.
$3,393,277 Vol.
Sep 29, 2026
United Russia (ER)
99%
Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF)
1%
New People (NL)
<1%
Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)
<1%
Yabloko
<1%
A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP)
<1%
Rodina
<1%
Civic Platform (GP)
<1%
United Russia (ER) 99.0%
Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) <1%
New People (NL) <1%
Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) <1%
$3,393,277 Vol.
$3,393,277 Vol.
Sep 29, 2026
United Russia (ER)
$897,163 Vol.
99%
Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF)
$196,988 Vol.
1%
New People (NL)
$159,791 Vol.
<1%
Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)
$225,232 Vol.
<1%
Yabloko
$61,709 Vol.
<1%
A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP)
$742,252 Vol.
<1%
Rodina
$505,710 Vol.
<1%
Civic Platform (GP)
$604,433 Vol.
<1%
Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election.
If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.United Russia maintains a commanding lead in the State Duma election market due to its entrenched position as the ruling party aligned with President Vladimir Putin, combined with extensive institutional control over candidate registration, media access, and the multi-day voting process scheduled for September 18–20, 2026. Recent developments, including the Supreme Court’s annulment of Yabloko’s party list and restrictions on other opposition figures, have further narrowed competition among registered parties such as the CPRF, LDPR, and New People. While polls show some erosion in United Russia’s support amid the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, the party’s structural advantages—including single-mandate districts and administrative resources—underpin trader expectations of a large majority. Realistic challenges remain limited to unforeseen late developments such as major scandals or sharp shifts in elite alignments, though these appear improbable given the tightly managed environment.
Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election.
If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election.
If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
Market Opened: Jan 7, 2026, 4:20 PM ET
Volume
$3,393,277End Date
Sep 20, 2026Market Opened
Jan 7, 2026, 4:20 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election.
If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.United Russia maintains a commanding lead in the State Duma election market due to its entrenched position as the ruling party aligned with President Vladimir Putin, combined with extensive institutional control over candidate registration, media access, and the multi-day voting process scheduled for September 18–20, 2026. Recent developments, including the Supreme Court’s annulment of Yabloko’s party list and restrictions on other opposition figures, have further narrowed competition among registered parties such as the CPRF, LDPR, and New People. While polls show some erosion in United Russia’s support amid the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, the party’s structural advantages—including single-mandate districts and administrative resources—underpin trader expectations of a large majority. Realistic challenges remain limited to unforeseen late developments such as major scandals or sharp shifts in elite alignments, though these appear improbable given the tightly managed environment.
Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election.
If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election.
If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
Volume
$3,393,277End Date
Sep 20, 2026Market Opened
Jan 7, 2026, 4:20 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...United Russia maintains a commanding lead in the State Duma election market due to its entrenched position as the ruling party aligned with President Vladimir Putin, combined with extensive institutional control over candidate registration, media access, and the multi-day voting process scheduled for September 18–20, 2026. Recent developments, including the Supreme Court’s annulment of Yabloko’s party list and restrictions on other opposition figures, have further narrowed competition among registered parties such as the CPRF, LDPR, and New People. While polls show some erosion in United Russia’s support amid the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, the party’s structural advantages—including single-mandate districts and administrative resources—underpin trader expectations of a large majority. Realistic challenges remain limited to unforeseen late developments such as major scandals or sharp shifts in elite alignments, though these appear improbable given the tightly managed environment.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedRelated
Will New People (NL) win the fourth-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
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Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) win the third-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
51%
Will the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) win the second-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
85%
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Frequently Asked Questions