Russia’s Supreme Court ruling on August 10, 2026, removed Yabloko’s federal candidate list from the September State Duma ballot after a lawsuit by the Rodina party, leaving the liberal opposition group unable to compete in the proportional representation component. This exclusion, upheld on appeal, follows years of administrative barriers, candidate disqualifications, and documented restrictions on media access and operations that have kept the party below the 5% threshold in every national election since 1999. State-aligned polls consistently placed Yabloko near 1-3%, while independent surveys showed modest urban support insufficient to overcome systemic controls favoring established parties. Trader consensus at 99% for “No” reflects this confirmed absence from the nationwide ballot. Late legal reversals or an unexpected election postponement remain the only narrow paths that could alter the outcome before results finalize.