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icon for RI-02 Republican Primary Winner

RI-02 Republican Primary Winner

icon for RI-02 Republican Primary Winner

RI-02 Republican Primary Winner

Polymarket

$12,247 Vol.

Polymarket

$12,247 Vol.

Stephen Skoly

$8,147 Vol.

80%

Victor Mellor

$4,100 Vol.

20%

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the RI-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on September 9, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Stephen Skoly holds a strong lead in the Rhode Island Republican primary for the 2nd Congressional District, scheduled for September 9, 2026, reflecting trader consensus on his advantages heading into the final days. The state GOP endorsed Skoly at its June convention after Victor Mellor withdrew from the endorsement process, giving Skoly top ballot placement and institutional backing from party delegates and groups such as the Fraternal Order of Police. Skoly, an East Greenwich oral surgeon with decades of local practice and a record of opposing state COVID-19 mandates, benefits from established Rhode Island ties. Mellor, a self-funded challenger and former Marine who recently returned from Florida, has drawn attention through substantial personal spending and endorsements including from Michael Flynn, but faces questions over his Cuba foreign-agent registration and campaign emphasis on national issues. A September 4 debate highlighted policy overlaps on border security, healthcare, and conservative priorities with limited direct attacks. The race remains a two-candidate contest following earlier filings, with high undecideds in prior polling underscoring the impact of late momentum and turnout among Republican primary voters.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the RI-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on September 9, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the RI-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on September 9, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$12,247
End Date
Sep 9, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 21, 2026, 4:33 PM ET
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the RI-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on September 9, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Stephen Skoly holds a strong lead in the Rhode Island Republican primary for the 2nd Congressional District, scheduled for September 9, 2026, reflecting trader consensus on his advantages heading into the final days. The state GOP endorsed Skoly at its June convention after Victor Mellor withdrew from the endorsement process, giving Skoly top ballot placement and institutional backing from party delegates and groups such as the Fraternal Order of Police. Skoly, an East Greenwich oral surgeon with decades of local practice and a record of opposing state COVID-19 mandates, benefits from established Rhode Island ties. Mellor, a self-funded challenger and former Marine who recently returned from Florida, has drawn attention through substantial personal spending and endorsements including from Michael Flynn, but faces questions over his Cuba foreign-agent registration and campaign emphasis on national issues. A September 4 debate highlighted policy overlaps on border security, healthcare, and conservative priorities with limited direct attacks. The race remains a two-candidate contest following earlier filings, with high undecideds in prior polling underscoring the impact of late momentum and turnout among Republican primary voters.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the RI-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on September 9, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the RI-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on September 9, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$12,247
End Date
Sep 9, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 21, 2026, 4:33 PM ET

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Frequently Asked Questions

"RI-02 Republican Primary Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Stephen Skoly" at 80%, followed by "Victor Mellor" at 20%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 80¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 80% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "RI-02 Republican Primary Winner" has generated $12.2K in total trading volume since the market launched on Aug 21, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "RI-02 Republican Primary Winner," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "RI-02 Republican Primary Winner" is "Stephen Skoly" at 80%, meaning the market assigns a 80% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Victor Mellor" at 20%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "RI-02 Republican Primary Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.