Stephen Skoly holds a substantial lead in trader consensus for the Rhode Island 2nd Congressional District Republican primary, driven by his June 2026 endorsement from the state Republican Party at its convention, where delegates backed him over Victor Mellor by a wide margin. Skoly, a local East Greenwich oral surgeon and longtime resident, benefits from established party and institutional support within Rhode Island, including backing from state legislators and law enforcement groups. Mellor, a self-funded challenger with substantial campaign resources and endorsements from national figures, has faced recent scrutiny over his military record and out-of-state ties ahead of the September 9 primary. The narrow polling margin from early August and the candidates' September 4 debate have not shifted the implied probabilities, reflecting trader assessment of endorsement advantages and local voter dynamics in the low-turnout contest.