Elaine Pelino holds a commanding position in the Rhode Island Republican gubernatorial primary due to consistent polling leads among likely voters, including a University of New Hampshire survey showing her ahead of Aaron Guckian by roughly 20 points with substantial undecided respondents. The September 9 primary features low expected turnout typical of Rhode Island GOP contests, where voter preference for Pelino’s outsider profile and emphasis on spending restraint has outweighed Guckian’s June state party endorsement secured by a 72-44 delegate vote. Minor candidates including Robert Raimondo maintain negligible support. Scenarios that could still shift the outcome include unusually high organized turnout favoring the endorsed candidate or late consolidation of undecided voters in the final days before early voting begins August 20.