Incumbent Democrat Madeleine Dean holds a commanding position in Pennsylvania’s 4th congressional district, reflected in the 94.5% trader consensus for the Democratic nominee ahead of the November 3, 2026 general election. The district’s D+8 partisan voter index, combined with Dean’s established record and fundraising edge since her 2019 election, underpins the lopsided odds. Multiple forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic. Republican nominee Aurora Stuski, who won her May primary unopposed, faces structural headwinds in a suburban Montgomery County-heavy district that has favored Democrats in recent cycles. Late developments such as a national partisan swing, significant polling movement, or unforeseen campaign events could still narrow the margin before Election Day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedPA-04 House Election Winner
PA-04 House Election Winner
$19,259 Vol.
$19,259 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
95%
Republican Party
6%
$19,259 Vol.
$19,259 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
$6,759 Vol.
95%
Republican Party
$12,501 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Madeleine Dean holds a commanding position in Pennsylvania’s 4th congressional district, reflected in the 94.5% trader consensus for the Democratic nominee ahead of the November 3, 2026 general election. The district’s D+8 partisan voter index, combined with Dean’s established record and fundraising edge since her 2019 election, underpins the lopsided odds. Multiple forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic. Republican nominee Aurora Stuski, who won her May primary unopposed, faces structural headwinds in a suburban Montgomery County-heavy district that has favored Democrats in recent cycles. Late developments such as a national partisan swing, significant polling movement, or unforeseen campaign events could still narrow the margin before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
Volume
$19,259End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Madeleine Dean holds a commanding position in Pennsylvania’s 4th congressional district, reflected in the 94.5% trader consensus for the Democratic nominee ahead of the November 3, 2026 general election. The district’s D+8 partisan voter index, combined with Dean’s established record and fundraising edge since her 2019 election, underpins the lopsided odds. Multiple forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic. Republican nominee Aurora Stuski, who won her May primary unopposed, faces structural headwinds in a suburban Montgomery County-heavy district that has favored Democrats in recent cycles. Late developments such as a national partisan swing, significant polling movement, or unforeseen campaign events could still narrow the margin before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$19,259End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Madeleine Dean holds a commanding position in Pennsylvania’s 4th congressional district, reflected in the 94.5% trader consensus for the Democratic nominee ahead of the November 3, 2026 general election. The district’s D+8 partisan voter index, combined with Dean’s established record and fundraising edge since her 2019 election, underpins the lopsided odds. Multiple forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic. Republican nominee Aurora Stuski, who won her May primary unopposed, faces structural headwinds in a suburban Montgomery County-heavy district that has favored Democrats in recent cycles. Late developments such as a national partisan swing, significant polling movement, or unforeseen campaign events could still narrow the margin before Election Day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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