The heavily Democratic partisan composition of New York’s 7th congressional district, covering parts of Brooklyn and Queens, underpins trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee at 95.5 percent. Longtime incumbent Nydia Velázquez’s retirement created an open seat, but Claire Valdez secured the nomination in the June 2026 Democratic primary with a decisive margin over Antonio Reynoso. Nonpartisan ratings from the Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball classify the race as Solid or Safe Democratic, consistent with the district’s D+50 partisan voting index and Velázquez’s 78 percent general-election performance in 2024. Limited Republican opposition further reinforces the positioning. Late developments that could shift probabilities include a significant scandal involving the Democratic candidate, an unusually large turnout surge for Republicans, or a national political realignment altering local dynamics before the November 3 general election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNY-07 House Election Winner
NY-07 House Election Winner
$30,227 Vol.
$30,227 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
96%
Republican Party
1%
$30,227 Vol.
$30,227 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
$15,469 Vol.
96%
Republican Party
$14,758 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The heavily Democratic partisan composition of New York’s 7th congressional district, covering parts of Brooklyn and Queens, underpins trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee at 95.5 percent. Longtime incumbent Nydia Velázquez’s retirement created an open seat, but Claire Valdez secured the nomination in the June 2026 Democratic primary with a decisive margin over Antonio Reynoso. Nonpartisan ratings from the Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball classify the race as Solid or Safe Democratic, consistent with the district’s D+50 partisan voting index and Velázquez’s 78 percent general-election performance in 2024. Limited Republican opposition further reinforces the positioning. Late developments that could shift probabilities include a significant scandal involving the Democratic candidate, an unusually large turnout surge for Republicans, or a national political realignment altering local dynamics before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:22 AM ET
Volume
$30,227End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:22 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The heavily Democratic partisan composition of New York’s 7th congressional district, covering parts of Brooklyn and Queens, underpins trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee at 95.5 percent. Longtime incumbent Nydia Velázquez’s retirement created an open seat, but Claire Valdez secured the nomination in the June 2026 Democratic primary with a decisive margin over Antonio Reynoso. Nonpartisan ratings from the Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball classify the race as Solid or Safe Democratic, consistent with the district’s D+50 partisan voting index and Velázquez’s 78 percent general-election performance in 2024. Limited Republican opposition further reinforces the positioning. Late developments that could shift probabilities include a significant scandal involving the Democratic candidate, an unusually large turnout surge for Republicans, or a national political realignment altering local dynamics before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$30,227End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:22 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The heavily Democratic partisan composition of New York’s 7th congressional district, covering parts of Brooklyn and Queens, underpins trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee at 95.5 percent. Longtime incumbent Nydia Velázquez’s retirement created an open seat, but Claire Valdez secured the nomination in the June 2026 Democratic primary with a decisive margin over Antonio Reynoso. Nonpartisan ratings from the Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball classify the race as Solid or Safe Democratic, consistent with the district’s D+50 partisan voting index and Velázquez’s 78 percent general-election performance in 2024. Limited Republican opposition further reinforces the positioning. Late developments that could shift probabilities include a significant scandal involving the Democratic candidate, an unusually large turnout surge for Republicans, or a national political realignment altering local dynamics before the November 3 general election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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