Skip to main content

To trade in the US, go to polymarket.us

icon for New Hampshire Democratic Senate Primary: Margin of Victory
Politics·Primaries

New Hampshire Democratic Senate Primary: Margin of Victory

icon for New Hampshire Democratic Senate Primary: Margin of Victory
Politics·Primaries

New Hampshire Democratic Senate Primary: Margin of Victory

Pappas 30–35% 45%

Pappas 0–5% 22%

Pappas 15–20% 19%

Pappas 20–25% 13%

Polymarket
NEW

Pappas 30–35% 45%

Pappas 0–5% 22%

Pappas 15–20% 19%

Pappas 20–25% 13%

Polymarket
NEW
icon for Pappas 40%+

Pappas 40%+

$1,281 Vol.

10%

icon for Pappas 35–40%

Pappas 35–40%

$89 Vol.

5%

icon for Pappas 30–35%

Pappas 30–35%

$34 Vol.

45%

icon for Pappas 25–30%

Pappas 25–30%

$171 Vol.

10%

icon for Pappas 20–25%

Pappas 20–25%

$445 Vol.

26%

icon for Pappas 15–20%

Pappas 15–20%

$259 Vol.

19%

icon for Pappas 10–15%

Pappas 10–15%

$301 Vol.

19%

icon for Pappas 5–10%

Pappas 5–10%

$159 Vol.

33%

icon for Pappas 0–5%

Pappas 0–5%

$288 Vol.

22%

icon for Manzur 0–5%

Manzur 0–5%

$195 Vol.

3%

icon for Manzur 5%+

Manzur 5%+

$165 Vol.

<1%

The New Hampshire Democratic primary for the U.S. Senate is scheduled to be held on September 8, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory in the Democratic primary for the U.S. Senate seat in New Hampshire. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.” This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be the New Hampshire Secretary of State, https://www.sos.nh.gov/.Chris Pappas holds a substantial lead over Karishma Manzur in the September 8 Democratic primary for New Hampshire’s open Senate seat, backed by strong fundraising exceeding $15 million, endorsements from party leaders including Kamala Harris and retiring Senator Jeanne Shaheen, and his record as a moderate incumbent representative. Recent August polling shows the gap narrowing from earlier double-digit or larger advantages to 13–31 points, with Manzur drawing support from younger and progressive voters through a grassroots campaign. Minor candidates remain negligible in surveys. Trader pricing across margin buckets reflects Pappas as the clear frontrunner per the wisdom of crowds, tempered by uncertainty over final turnout, undecided voters near 15–18 percent in late polls, and the potential for a narrower or wider result on primary night.

The New Hampshire Democratic primary for the U.S. Senate is scheduled to be held on September 8, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the margin of victory in the Democratic primary for the U.S. Senate seat in New Hampshire.

For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.

If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”

This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.

If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The resolution source for this market will be the New Hampshire Secretary of State, https://www.sos.nh.gov/.The New Hampshire Democratic primary for the U.S. Senate is scheduled to be held on September 8, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory in the Democratic primary for the U.S. Senate seat in New Hampshire. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.” This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be the New Hampshire Secretary of State, https://www.sos.nh.gov/.
Volume
$3,386
End Date
Sep 8, 2026
Market Opened
Sep 1, 2026, 1:45 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
The New Hampshire Democratic primary for the U.S. Senate is scheduled to be held on September 8, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory in the Democratic primary for the U.S. Senate seat in New Hampshire. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.” This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be the New Hampshire Secretary of State, https://www.sos.nh.gov/.Chris Pappas holds a substantial lead over Karishma Manzur in the September 8 Democratic primary for New Hampshire’s open Senate seat, backed by strong fundraising exceeding $15 million, endorsements from party leaders including Kamala Harris and retiring Senator Jeanne Shaheen, and his record as a moderate incumbent representative. Recent August polling shows the gap narrowing from earlier double-digit or larger advantages to 13–31 points, with Manzur drawing support from younger and progressive voters through a grassroots campaign. Minor candidates remain negligible in surveys. Trader pricing across margin buckets reflects Pappas as the clear frontrunner per the wisdom of crowds, tempered by uncertainty over final turnout, undecided voters near 15–18 percent in late polls, and the potential for a narrower or wider result on primary night.

The New Hampshire Democratic primary for the U.S. Senate is scheduled to be held on September 8, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the margin of victory in the Democratic primary for the U.S. Senate seat in New Hampshire.

For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.

If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”

This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.

If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The resolution source for this market will be the New Hampshire Secretary of State, https://www.sos.nh.gov/.The New Hampshire Democratic primary for the U.S. Senate is scheduled to be held on September 8, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory in the Democratic primary for the U.S. Senate seat in New Hampshire. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.” This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be the New Hampshire Secretary of State, https://www.sos.nh.gov/.
Volume
$3,386
End Date
Sep 8, 2026
Market Opened
Sep 1, 2026, 1:45 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...

Related

icon for Will Ed Markey win the Massachusetts Democratic Senate primary by 25–30%?

Will Ed Markey win the Massachusetts Democratic Senate primary by 25–30%?

75%
icon for Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 New Hampshire Senate election by 15%-18%?

Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 New Hampshire Senate election by 15%-18%?

21%
icon for Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 New Hampshire gubernatorial election by 6%-9%?

Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 New Hampshire gubernatorial election by 6%-9%?

17%

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"New Hampshire Democratic Senate Primary: Margin of Victory" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 11 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Pappas 5–10%" at 33%, followed by "Pappas 20–25%" at 26%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 33¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 33% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"New Hampshire Democratic Senate Primary: Margin of Victory" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Sep 1, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "New Hampshire Democratic Senate Primary: Margin of Victory," browse the 11 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "New Hampshire Democratic Senate Primary: Margin of Victory" is "Pappas 5–10%" at 33%, meaning the market assigns a 33% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Pappas 20–25%" at 26%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "New Hampshire Democratic Senate Primary: Margin of Victory" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.