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Geopolitics·Middle East

Mojtaba Khamenei public appearance by...?

icon for Mojtaba Khamenei public appearance by...?
Geopolitics·Middle East

Mojtaba Khamenei public appearance by...?

$7,083,827 Vol.

Dec 31, 2026
Polymarket

$7,083,827 Vol.

Polymarket

September 30

$372,245 Vol.

3%

October 31

$6,466 Vol.

10%

December 31

$585,908 Vol.

22%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, is photographed or videotaped between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes," the images or video must be taken and released within this market's timeframe. The images or video must be authentic. Archival material, previously recorded footage, reused images, digitally altered content, AI-generated media, staged reproductions, or any posthumous releases will not qualify. Digital appearances, including live broadcasts, will count for this market. The resolution source for this market will be the image/video of Mojtaba Khamenei, and a consensus of credible reporting as to whether it is real.Mojtaba Khamenei has remained out of verified public view since succeeding his father as Iran's Supreme Leader in March 2026 following the February 28 airstrikes that killed Ali Khamenei. He has issued only written statements via state media and Telegram while regime outlets release undated footage, old clips, or AI-generated material, prompting persistent questions about his health and security. Reports cite injuries to his legs, face, and other areas from the same strike, alongside assassination risks that have kept him in secure locations with limited access even for senior officials. His absence from the July 2026 funeral ceremonies reinforced trader focus on whether upcoming diplomatic, religious, or official events within the resolution window could prompt a confirmed live appearance or if structural and security constraints will extend the pattern of remote communication.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, is photographed or videotaped between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For this market to resolve to "Yes," the images or video must be taken and released within this market's timeframe. The images or video must be authentic. Archival material, previously recorded footage, reused images, digitally altered content, AI-generated media, staged reproductions, or any posthumous releases will not qualify.

Digital appearances, including live broadcasts, will count for this market.

The resolution source for this market will be the image/video of Mojtaba Khamenei, and a consensus of credible reporting as to whether it is real.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, is photographed or videotaped between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes," the images or video must be taken and released within this market's timeframe. The images or video must be authentic. Archival material, previously recorded footage, reused images, digitally altered content, AI-generated media, staged reproductions, or any posthumous releases will not qualify. Digital appearances, including live broadcasts, will count for this market. The resolution source for this market will be the image/video of Mojtaba Khamenei, and a consensus of credible reporting as to whether it is real.
Volume
$7,083,827
End Date
Jan 1, 2027
Market Opened
Jul 2, 2026, 1:55 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, is photographed or videotaped between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes," the images or video must be taken and released within this market's timeframe. The images or video must be authentic. Archival material, previously recorded footage, reused images, digitally altered content, AI-generated media, staged reproductions, or any posthumous releases will not qualify. Digital appearances, including live broadcasts, will count for this market. The resolution source for this market will be the image/video of Mojtaba Khamenei, and a consensus of credible reporting as to whether it is real.Mojtaba Khamenei has remained out of verified public view since succeeding his father as Iran's Supreme Leader in March 2026 following the February 28 airstrikes that killed Ali Khamenei. He has issued only written statements via state media and Telegram while regime outlets release undated footage, old clips, or AI-generated material, prompting persistent questions about his health and security. Reports cite injuries to his legs, face, and other areas from the same strike, alongside assassination risks that have kept him in secure locations with limited access even for senior officials. His absence from the July 2026 funeral ceremonies reinforced trader focus on whether upcoming diplomatic, religious, or official events within the resolution window could prompt a confirmed live appearance or if structural and security constraints will extend the pattern of remote communication.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, is photographed or videotaped between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For this market to resolve to "Yes," the images or video must be taken and released within this market's timeframe. The images or video must be authentic. Archival material, previously recorded footage, reused images, digitally altered content, AI-generated media, staged reproductions, or any posthumous releases will not qualify.

Digital appearances, including live broadcasts, will count for this market.

The resolution source for this market will be the image/video of Mojtaba Khamenei, and a consensus of credible reporting as to whether it is real.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, is photographed or videotaped between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes," the images or video must be taken and released within this market's timeframe. The images or video must be authentic. Archival material, previously recorded footage, reused images, digitally altered content, AI-generated media, staged reproductions, or any posthumous releases will not qualify. Digital appearances, including live broadcasts, will count for this market. The resolution source for this market will be the image/video of Mojtaba Khamenei, and a consensus of credible reporting as to whether it is real.
Volume
$7,083,827
End Date
Jan 1, 2027
Market Opened
Jul 2, 2026, 1:55 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Mojtaba Khamenei public appearance by...?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 14 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "December 31" at 22%, followed by "October 31" at 10%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 22¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 22% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Mojtaba Khamenei public appearance by...?" has generated $7.1 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Mar 9, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Mojtaba Khamenei public appearance by...?," browse the 14 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Mojtaba Khamenei public appearance by...?" is "December 31" at 22%, meaning the market assigns a 22% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "October 31" at 10%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Mojtaba Khamenei public appearance by...?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.