**Mojtaba Khamenei has remained out of public view since his appointment as Iran’s Supreme Leader following the February 28, 2026, U.S.-Israeli strike that killed his father, Ali Khamenei, and left Mojtaba wounded.** He has issued only written statements and decrees, with no confirmed images, audio, or in-person appearances. Iranian officials cite security risks of assassination and cite his recovery in a protected domestic location, while reports of meetings with President Masoud Pezeshkian and military appointments continue. Persistent rumors of grave injury, death, or possible transfer abroad (such as to Russia for treatment) have circulated among regime insiders and Western sources, though these remain unverified and often denied. His absence amid ongoing regional tensions and internal power dynamics keeps questions about his location and capacity central to assessments of whether he might depart Iran.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$117,430 Vol.
Oct 31, 2026
October 31
4%
December 31
6%
$117,430 Vol.
October 31
$90 Vol.
4%
December 31
$428 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is confirmed that Mojtaba Khamenei was outside Iran at any point between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Both the presence outside Iran and its confirmation must occur between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. A presence outside Iran occurring prior to market creation will not qualify, regardless of when it is confirmed.
Mojtaba Khamenei need not depart Iran during the market window, nor remain outside Iran at the time of confirmation. If he was already outside Iran at market creation, his confirmed presence outside Iran during the window will qualify; likewise, a confirmed presence during the window will qualify even if he has since returned to Iran.
In cases where Mojtaba Khamenei may have exited Iranian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Iran for this market to resolve to "Yes". If Mojtaba Khamenei exits Iranian maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes".
If no qualifying confirmation occurs by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.**Mojtaba Khamenei has remained out of public view since his appointment as Iran’s Supreme Leader following the February 28, 2026, U.S.-Israeli strike that killed his father, Ali Khamenei, and left Mojtaba wounded.** He has issued only written statements and decrees, with no confirmed images, audio, or in-person appearances. Iranian officials cite security risks of assassination and cite his recovery in a protected domestic location, while reports of meetings with President Masoud Pezeshkian and military appointments continue. Persistent rumors of grave injury, death, or possible transfer abroad (such as to Russia for treatment) have circulated among regime insiders and Western sources, though these remain unverified and often denied. His absence amid ongoing regional tensions and internal power dynamics keeps questions about his location and capacity central to assessments of whether he might depart Iran.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is confirmed that Mojtaba Khamenei was outside Iran at any point between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Both the presence outside Iran and its confirmation must occur between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. A presence outside Iran occurring prior to market creation will not qualify, regardless of when it is confirmed.
Mojtaba Khamenei need not depart Iran during the market window, nor remain outside Iran at the time of confirmation. If he was already outside Iran at market creation, his confirmed presence outside Iran during the window will qualify; likewise, a confirmed presence during the window will qualify even if he has since returned to Iran.
In cases where Mojtaba Khamenei may have exited Iranian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Iran for this market to resolve to "Yes". If Mojtaba Khamenei exits Iranian maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes".
If no qualifying confirmation occurs by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Both the presence outside Iran and its confirmation must occur between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. A presence outside Iran occurring prior to market creation will not qualify, regardless of when it is confirmed.
Mojtaba Khamenei need not depart Iran during the market window, nor remain outside Iran at the time of confirmation. If he was already outside Iran at market creation, his confirmed presence outside Iran during the window will qualify; likewise, a confirmed presence during the window will qualify even if he has since returned to Iran.
In cases where Mojtaba Khamenei may have exited Iranian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Iran for this market to resolve to "Yes". If Mojtaba Khamenei exits Iranian maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes".
If no qualifying confirmation occurs by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Aug 18, 2026, 12:48 PM ET
Volume
$117,430End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Aug 18, 2026, 12:48 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is confirmed that Mojtaba Khamenei was outside Iran at any point between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Both the presence outside Iran and its confirmation must occur between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. A presence outside Iran occurring prior to market creation will not qualify, regardless of when it is confirmed.
Mojtaba Khamenei need not depart Iran during the market window, nor remain outside Iran at the time of confirmation. If he was already outside Iran at market creation, his confirmed presence outside Iran during the window will qualify; likewise, a confirmed presence during the window will qualify even if he has since returned to Iran.
In cases where Mojtaba Khamenei may have exited Iranian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Iran for this market to resolve to "Yes". If Mojtaba Khamenei exits Iranian maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes".
If no qualifying confirmation occurs by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.**Mojtaba Khamenei has remained out of public view since his appointment as Iran’s Supreme Leader following the February 28, 2026, U.S.-Israeli strike that killed his father, Ali Khamenei, and left Mojtaba wounded.** He has issued only written statements and decrees, with no confirmed images, audio, or in-person appearances. Iranian officials cite security risks of assassination and cite his recovery in a protected domestic location, while reports of meetings with President Masoud Pezeshkian and military appointments continue. Persistent rumors of grave injury, death, or possible transfer abroad (such as to Russia for treatment) have circulated among regime insiders and Western sources, though these remain unverified and often denied. His absence amid ongoing regional tensions and internal power dynamics keeps questions about his location and capacity central to assessments of whether he might depart Iran.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is confirmed that Mojtaba Khamenei was outside Iran at any point between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Both the presence outside Iran and its confirmation must occur between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. A presence outside Iran occurring prior to market creation will not qualify, regardless of when it is confirmed.
Mojtaba Khamenei need not depart Iran during the market window, nor remain outside Iran at the time of confirmation. If he was already outside Iran at market creation, his confirmed presence outside Iran during the window will qualify; likewise, a confirmed presence during the window will qualify even if he has since returned to Iran.
In cases where Mojtaba Khamenei may have exited Iranian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Iran for this market to resolve to "Yes". If Mojtaba Khamenei exits Iranian maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes".
If no qualifying confirmation occurs by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Both the presence outside Iran and its confirmation must occur between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. A presence outside Iran occurring prior to market creation will not qualify, regardless of when it is confirmed.
Mojtaba Khamenei need not depart Iran during the market window, nor remain outside Iran at the time of confirmation. If he was already outside Iran at market creation, his confirmed presence outside Iran during the window will qualify; likewise, a confirmed presence during the window will qualify even if he has since returned to Iran.
In cases where Mojtaba Khamenei may have exited Iranian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Iran for this market to resolve to "Yes". If Mojtaba Khamenei exits Iranian maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes".
If no qualifying confirmation occurs by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$117,430End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Aug 18, 2026, 12:48 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Mojtaba Khamenei has remained out of public view since his appointment as Iran’s Supreme Leader following the February 28, 2026, U.S.-Israeli strike that killed his father, Ali Khamenei, and left Mojtaba wounded.** He has issued only written statements and decrees, with no confirmed images, audio, or in-person appearances. Iranian officials cite security risks of assassination and cite his recovery in a protected domestic location, while reports of meetings with President Masoud Pezeshkian and military appointments continue. Persistent rumors of grave injury, death, or possible transfer abroad (such as to Russia for treatment) have circulated among regime insiders and Western sources, though these remain unverified and often denied. His absence amid ongoing regional tensions and internal power dynamics keeps questions about his location and capacity central to assessments of whether he might depart Iran.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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