Incumbent Republican Ann Wagner secured her party's nomination with nearly 74% in the August 4 primary, while Democrat Fred Wellman narrowly won his contest at 46%. The district's Republican lean, reflected in its R+6 to R+9 Partisan Voter Index and recent election margins, underpins trader consensus favoring the Republican nominee at 66.5%. Wagner has held the seat since 2012 with consistent double-digit victories, and independent forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Republican. A May internal poll showed a close head-to-head, but the absence of major shifts since primaries and the district's voting history sustain the current pricing ahead of the November 3 general election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedMO-02 House Election Winner
MO-02 House Election Winner
NEW
NEW
Nov 2, 2026
Republican Party
66%
Democratic Party
33%
NEW
NEW
Nov 2, 2026
Republican Party
$4,938 Vol.
66%
Democratic Party
$4,262 Vol.
33%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Ann Wagner secured her party's nomination with nearly 74% in the August 4 primary, while Democrat Fred Wellman narrowly won his contest at 46%. The district's Republican lean, reflected in its R+6 to R+9 Partisan Voter Index and recent election margins, underpins trader consensus favoring the Republican nominee at 66.5%. Wagner has held the seat since 2012 with consistent double-digit victories, and independent forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Republican. A May internal poll showed a close head-to-head, but the absence of major shifts since primaries and the district's voting history sustain the current pricing ahead of the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
Volume
$9,201End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Ann Wagner secured her party's nomination with nearly 74% in the August 4 primary, while Democrat Fred Wellman narrowly won his contest at 46%. The district's Republican lean, reflected in its R+6 to R+9 Partisan Voter Index and recent election margins, underpins trader consensus favoring the Republican nominee at 66.5%. Wagner has held the seat since 2012 with consistent double-digit victories, and independent forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Republican. A May internal poll showed a close head-to-head, but the absence of major shifts since primaries and the district's voting history sustain the current pricing ahead of the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$9,201End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Ann Wagner secured her party's nomination with nearly 74% in the August 4 primary, while Democrat Fred Wellman narrowly won his contest at 46%. The district's Republican lean, reflected in its R+6 to R+9 Partisan Voter Index and recent election margins, underpins trader consensus favoring the Republican nominee at 66.5%. Wagner has held the seat since 2012 with consistent double-digit victories, and independent forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Republican. A May internal poll showed a close head-to-head, but the absence of major shifts since primaries and the district's voting history sustain the current pricing ahead of the November 3 general election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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