Recent observational data from NSIDC and OSI SAF show Arctic sea ice extent averaging 5.56 million square kilometers in August 2026, ranking seventh lowest on record, after tracking near 2012 levels earlier in the melt season. Cooler-than-average temperatures over the high-latitude Arctic Ocean, despite warmth in Siberia and the Canadian Archipelago, slowed ice loss relative to more extreme years and support a September minimum in the 4.2–4.6 million square kilometer range. Long-term thinning and the post-2007 baseline of roughly 4.0–5.7 million square kilometers provide the broader context, while ongoing model runs and daily extent updates through mid-September will refine the final outcome. Trader consensus on the leading bins reflects this balance of persistent warming trends and 2026-specific atmospheric conditions.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedMin Arctic sea ice extent this summer?
Min Arctic sea ice extent this summer?
4.4-4.6m sq km 38.6%
4.6-4.8m sq km 5.1%
4.8-5m sq km 4.9%
4.0-4.2m sq km 4.5%
$74,940 Vol.
$74,940 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
<4m sq km
3%
4.0-4.2m sq km
4%
4.2-4.4m sq km
52%
4.4-4.6m sq km
39%
4.6-4.8m sq km
5%
4.8-5m sq km
5%
5m+ sq km
1%
4.4-4.6m sq km 38.6%
4.6-4.8m sq km 5.1%
4.8-5m sq km 4.9%
4.0-4.2m sq km 4.5%
$74,940 Vol.
$74,940 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
<4m sq km
$33,148 Vol.
3%
4.0-4.2m sq km
$7,277 Vol.
4%
4.2-4.4m sq km
$3,498 Vol.
52%
4.4-4.6m sq km
$3,716 Vol.
39%
4.6-4.8m sq km
$8,305 Vol.
5%
4.8-5m sq km
$4,166 Vol.
5%
5m+ sq km
$14,830 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.Recent observational data from NSIDC and OSI SAF show Arctic sea ice extent averaging 5.56 million square kilometers in August 2026, ranking seventh lowest on record, after tracking near 2012 levels earlier in the melt season. Cooler-than-average temperatures over the high-latitude Arctic Ocean, despite warmth in Siberia and the Canadian Archipelago, slowed ice loss relative to more extreme years and support a September minimum in the 4.2–4.6 million square kilometer range. Long-term thinning and the post-2007 baseline of roughly 4.0–5.7 million square kilometers provide the broader context, while ongoing model runs and daily extent updates through mid-September will refine the final outcome. Trader consensus on the leading bins reflects this balance of persistent warming trends and 2026-specific atmospheric conditions.
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
Market Opened: Nov 20, 2025, 6:43 PM ET
Volume
$74,940End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Nov 20, 2025, 6:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.Recent observational data from NSIDC and OSI SAF show Arctic sea ice extent averaging 5.56 million square kilometers in August 2026, ranking seventh lowest on record, after tracking near 2012 levels earlier in the melt season. Cooler-than-average temperatures over the high-latitude Arctic Ocean, despite warmth in Siberia and the Canadian Archipelago, slowed ice loss relative to more extreme years and support a September minimum in the 4.2–4.6 million square kilometer range. Long-term thinning and the post-2007 baseline of roughly 4.0–5.7 million square kilometers provide the broader context, while ongoing model runs and daily extent updates through mid-September will refine the final outcome. Trader consensus on the leading bins reflects this balance of persistent warming trends and 2026-specific atmospheric conditions.
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
Volume
$74,940End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Nov 20, 2025, 6:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent observational data from NSIDC and OSI SAF show Arctic sea ice extent averaging 5.56 million square kilometers in August 2026, ranking seventh lowest on record, after tracking near 2012 levels earlier in the melt season. Cooler-than-average temperatures over the high-latitude Arctic Ocean, despite warmth in Siberia and the Canadian Archipelago, slowed ice loss relative to more extreme years and support a September minimum in the 4.2–4.6 million square kilometer range. Long-term thinning and the post-2007 baseline of roughly 4.0–5.7 million square kilometers provide the broader context, while ongoing model runs and daily extent updates through mid-September will refine the final outcome. Trader consensus on the leading bins reflects this balance of persistent warming trends and 2026-specific atmospheric conditions.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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