The district's strong Democratic lean, reflected in a Cook Partisan Voting Index of D+9 and consistent Solid Democratic ratings from outlets like Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball, underpins trader consensus for a Democratic hold. Jeremy Moss secured the Democratic nomination in the August 4 primary with nearly 50 percent of the vote against several challengers, while Ethan Baker advanced unopposed on the Republican side in a low-profile contest. Haley Stevens' decision to pursue the Senate seat created an open race but did not alter the underlying partisan math in Oakland County. Late developments such as a major national Republican surge, candidate-specific scandals, or unusually high third-party turnout could narrow margins, though historical patterns and the absence of competitive polling suggest limited realistic paths to an upset before the November 3 general election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedMI-11 House Election Winner
MI-11 House Election Winner
$79,042 Vol.
$79,042 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
96%
Republican Party
3%
$79,042 Vol.
$79,042 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
$56,489 Vol.
96%
Republican Party
$22,552 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MI-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The district's strong Democratic lean, reflected in a Cook Partisan Voting Index of D+9 and consistent Solid Democratic ratings from outlets like Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball, underpins trader consensus for a Democratic hold. Jeremy Moss secured the Democratic nomination in the August 4 primary with nearly 50 percent of the vote against several challengers, while Ethan Baker advanced unopposed on the Republican side in a low-profile contest. Haley Stevens' decision to pursue the Senate seat created an open race but did not alter the underlying partisan math in Oakland County. Late developments such as a major national Republican surge, candidate-specific scandals, or unusually high third-party turnout could narrow margins, though historical patterns and the absence of competitive polling suggest limited realistic paths to an upset before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MI-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
Volume
$79,042End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MI-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The district's strong Democratic lean, reflected in a Cook Partisan Voting Index of D+9 and consistent Solid Democratic ratings from outlets like Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball, underpins trader consensus for a Democratic hold. Jeremy Moss secured the Democratic nomination in the August 4 primary with nearly 50 percent of the vote against several challengers, while Ethan Baker advanced unopposed on the Republican side in a low-profile contest. Haley Stevens' decision to pursue the Senate seat created an open race but did not alter the underlying partisan math in Oakland County. Late developments such as a major national Republican surge, candidate-specific scandals, or unusually high third-party turnout could narrow margins, though historical patterns and the absence of competitive polling suggest limited realistic paths to an upset before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MI-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$79,042End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The district's strong Democratic lean, reflected in a Cook Partisan Voting Index of D+9 and consistent Solid Democratic ratings from outlets like Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball, underpins trader consensus for a Democratic hold. Jeremy Moss secured the Democratic nomination in the August 4 primary with nearly 50 percent of the vote against several challengers, while Ethan Baker advanced unopposed on the Republican side in a low-profile contest. Haley Stevens' decision to pursue the Senate seat created an open race but did not alter the underlying partisan math in Oakland County. Late developments such as a major national Republican surge, candidate-specific scandals, or unusually high third-party turnout could narrow margins, though historical patterns and the absence of competitive polling suggest limited realistic paths to an upset before the November 3 general election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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