**Maduro's US federal prosecution on narco-terrorism and cocaine-trafficking charges drives the current pricing.** Captured in a January 2026 US military operation in Caracas, he has remained in Brooklyn detention while contesting jurisdiction. His September 2026 motions seek dismissal on head-of-state immunity grounds, with oral argument set for November 17; precedent cases such as Noriega indicate these arguments face steep hurdles. A June 2027 trial date is fixed if the case proceeds, carrying potential life sentences. Traders appear to assign the highest probability to no prison time because of the uncertain outcome of pretrial motions, possible political resolutions tied to ongoing US-Venezuela oil arrangements, or other factors that could end the case short of conviction and sentencing. The distribution across longer terms reflects the severity of the charges should immunity claims fail and the case reach a jury.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNo prison time 44%
60+ 27%
20–40 14.3%
40–60 10.1%
$714,540 Vol.
$714,540 Vol.
Dec 30, 2027
No prison time
44%
<20
5%
20–40
14%
40–60
10%
60+
27%
No prison time 44%
60+ 27%
20–40 14.3%
40–60 10.1%
$714,540 Vol.
$714,540 Vol.
Dec 30, 2027
No prison time
$438,823 Vol.
44%
<20
$107,022 Vol.
5%
20–40
$56,724 Vol.
14%
40–60
$24,518 Vol.
10%
60+
$87,453 Vol.
27%
Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro was indicted in the Southern District of New York on January 3, 2026 on charges including Narco-Terrorism Conspiracy and Cocaine Importation Conspiracy. Maduro was indicted alongside alleged co-conspirators in an indictment titled "United States of America V. Nicolás Maduro Moros, Diosdado Cabello Rondón, Ramón Rodríguez Chacín, Cilia Adela Flores de Maduro, Nicolás Ernesto Maduro Guerra".
This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Nicolas Maduro (Nicolas Maduro Moros) relating to this indictment by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Maduro is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If Maduro is sentenced to life imprisonment without a specified numerical term of years, this market will resolve to the highest range bracket.
If the imposed sentence falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Maduro is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in the first sentencing for this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Maduro's US federal prosecution on narco-terrorism and cocaine-trafficking charges drives the current pricing.** Captured in a January 2026 US military operation in Caracas, he has remained in Brooklyn detention while contesting jurisdiction. His September 2026 motions seek dismissal on head-of-state immunity grounds, with oral argument set for November 17; precedent cases such as Noriega indicate these arguments face steep hurdles. A June 2027 trial date is fixed if the case proceeds, carrying potential life sentences. Traders appear to assign the highest probability to no prison time because of the uncertain outcome of pretrial motions, possible political resolutions tied to ongoing US-Venezuela oil arrangements, or other factors that could end the case short of conviction and sentencing. The distribution across longer terms reflects the severity of the charges should immunity claims fail and the case reach a jury.
Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro was indicted in the Southern District of New York on January 3, 2026 on charges including Narco-Terrorism Conspiracy and Cocaine Importation Conspiracy. Maduro was indicted alongside alleged co-conspirators in an indictment titled "United States of America V. Nicolás Maduro Moros, Diosdado Cabello Rondón, Ramón Rodríguez Chacín, Cilia Adela Flores de Maduro, Nicolás Ernesto Maduro Guerra".
This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Nicolas Maduro (Nicolas Maduro Moros) relating to this indictment by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Maduro is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If Maduro is sentenced to life imprisonment without a specified numerical term of years, this market will resolve to the highest range bracket.
If the imposed sentence falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Maduro is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in the first sentencing for this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Nicolas Maduro (Nicolas Maduro Moros) relating to this indictment by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Maduro is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If Maduro is sentenced to life imprisonment without a specified numerical term of years, this market will resolve to the highest range bracket.
If the imposed sentence falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Maduro is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in the first sentencing for this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Jan 4, 2026, 12:29 PM ET
Volume
$714,540End Date
Dec 31, 2027Market Opened
Jan 4, 2026, 12:29 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro was indicted in the Southern District of New York on January 3, 2026 on charges including Narco-Terrorism Conspiracy and Cocaine Importation Conspiracy. Maduro was indicted alongside alleged co-conspirators in an indictment titled "United States of America V. Nicolás Maduro Moros, Diosdado Cabello Rondón, Ramón Rodríguez Chacín, Cilia Adela Flores de Maduro, Nicolás Ernesto Maduro Guerra".
This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Nicolas Maduro (Nicolas Maduro Moros) relating to this indictment by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Maduro is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If Maduro is sentenced to life imprisonment without a specified numerical term of years, this market will resolve to the highest range bracket.
If the imposed sentence falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Maduro is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in the first sentencing for this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Maduro's US federal prosecution on narco-terrorism and cocaine-trafficking charges drives the current pricing.** Captured in a January 2026 US military operation in Caracas, he has remained in Brooklyn detention while contesting jurisdiction. His September 2026 motions seek dismissal on head-of-state immunity grounds, with oral argument set for November 17; precedent cases such as Noriega indicate these arguments face steep hurdles. A June 2027 trial date is fixed if the case proceeds, carrying potential life sentences. Traders appear to assign the highest probability to no prison time because of the uncertain outcome of pretrial motions, possible political resolutions tied to ongoing US-Venezuela oil arrangements, or other factors that could end the case short of conviction and sentencing. The distribution across longer terms reflects the severity of the charges should immunity claims fail and the case reach a jury.
Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro was indicted in the Southern District of New York on January 3, 2026 on charges including Narco-Terrorism Conspiracy and Cocaine Importation Conspiracy. Maduro was indicted alongside alleged co-conspirators in an indictment titled "United States of America V. Nicolás Maduro Moros, Diosdado Cabello Rondón, Ramón Rodríguez Chacín, Cilia Adela Flores de Maduro, Nicolás Ernesto Maduro Guerra".
This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Nicolas Maduro (Nicolas Maduro Moros) relating to this indictment by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Maduro is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If Maduro is sentenced to life imprisonment without a specified numerical term of years, this market will resolve to the highest range bracket.
If the imposed sentence falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Maduro is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in the first sentencing for this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Nicolas Maduro (Nicolas Maduro Moros) relating to this indictment by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Maduro is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If Maduro is sentenced to life imprisonment without a specified numerical term of years, this market will resolve to the highest range bracket.
If the imposed sentence falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Maduro is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in the first sentencing for this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$714,540End Date
Dec 31, 2027Market Opened
Jan 4, 2026, 12:29 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...**Maduro's US federal prosecution on narco-terrorism and cocaine-trafficking charges drives the current pricing.** Captured in a January 2026 US military operation in Caracas, he has remained in Brooklyn detention while contesting jurisdiction. His September 2026 motions seek dismissal on head-of-state immunity grounds, with oral argument set for November 17; precedent cases such as Noriega indicate these arguments face steep hurdles. A June 2027 trial date is fixed if the case proceeds, carrying potential life sentences. Traders appear to assign the highest probability to no prison time because of the uncertain outcome of pretrial motions, possible political resolutions tied to ongoing US-Venezuela oil arrangements, or other factors that could end the case short of conviction and sentencing. The distribution across longer terms reflects the severity of the charges should immunity claims fail and the case reach a jury.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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