**Trader sentiment for Wellington's lowest temperature on September 6 reflects tight clustering around 8–14°C, driven by an approaching low-pressure system and associated frontal passage.** As of September 5, strong northwesterlies are yielding to a southerly change overnight, with MetService and other models indicating patchy drizzle or rain developing, potentially heavy at times. This shift introduces cooler maritime air, limiting daytime warming while enhancing overnight radiative cooling under variable cloud cover. Forecast lows range from roughly 7–10°C across sources (e.g., 7°C per NZ Herald/MetService, ~9°C per WeatherBug), with uncertainty stemming from exact frontal timing, wind gusts disrupting boundary-layer mixing, and precipitation rates that can suppress or enhance minimums via latent heat and cloud insulation. Ensemble spreads highlight sensitivity to these variables, keeping implied probabilities closely matched as traders weigh model consensus against historical spring variability in the region.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Wellington on September 6?
Lowest temperature in Wellington on September 6?
8°C or below 94%
9°C 90%
14°C 90%
10°C 89%
NEW
NEW
Sep 6, 2026
8°C or below
94%
9°C
90%
10°C
89%
11°C
46%
12°C
47%
13°C
47%
14°C
90%
15°C
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C or higher
<1%
8°C or below 94%
9°C 90%
14°C 90%
10°C 89%
NEW
NEW
Sep 6, 2026
8°C or below
$0 Vol.
94%
9°C
$0 Vol.
90%
10°C
$0 Vol.
89%
11°C
$6 Vol.
46%
12°C
$0 Vol.
47%
13°C
$44 Vol.
47%
14°C
$0 Vol.
90%
15°C
$35 Vol.
<1%
16°C
$35 Vol.
<1%
17°C
$35 Vol.
<1%
18°C or higher
$35 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader sentiment for Wellington's lowest temperature on September 6 reflects tight clustering around 8–14°C, driven by an approaching low-pressure system and associated frontal passage.** As of September 5, strong northwesterlies are yielding to a southerly change overnight, with MetService and other models indicating patchy drizzle or rain developing, potentially heavy at times. This shift introduces cooler maritime air, limiting daytime warming while enhancing overnight radiative cooling under variable cloud cover. Forecast lows range from roughly 7–10°C across sources (e.g., 7°C per NZ Herald/MetService, ~9°C per WeatherBug), with uncertainty stemming from exact frontal timing, wind gusts disrupting boundary-layer mixing, and precipitation rates that can suppress or enhance minimums via latent heat and cloud insulation. Ensemble spreads highlight sensitivity to these variables, keeping implied probabilities closely matched as traders weigh model consensus against historical spring variability in the region.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 4, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Volume
$190End Date
Sep 6, 2026Market Opened
Sep 4, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader sentiment for Wellington's lowest temperature on September 6 reflects tight clustering around 8–14°C, driven by an approaching low-pressure system and associated frontal passage.** As of September 5, strong northwesterlies are yielding to a southerly change overnight, with MetService and other models indicating patchy drizzle or rain developing, potentially heavy at times. This shift introduces cooler maritime air, limiting daytime warming while enhancing overnight radiative cooling under variable cloud cover. Forecast lows range from roughly 7–10°C across sources (e.g., 7°C per NZ Herald/MetService, ~9°C per WeatherBug), with uncertainty stemming from exact frontal timing, wind gusts disrupting boundary-layer mixing, and precipitation rates that can suppress or enhance minimums via latent heat and cloud insulation. Ensemble spreads highlight sensitivity to these variables, keeping implied probabilities closely matched as traders weigh model consensus against historical spring variability in the region.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$190End Date
Sep 6, 2026Market Opened
Sep 4, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Trader sentiment for Wellington's lowest temperature on September 6 reflects tight clustering around 8–14°C, driven by an approaching low-pressure system and associated frontal passage.** As of September 5, strong northwesterlies are yielding to a southerly change overnight, with MetService and other models indicating patchy drizzle or rain developing, potentially heavy at times. This shift introduces cooler maritime air, limiting daytime warming while enhancing overnight radiative cooling under variable cloud cover. Forecast lows range from roughly 7–10°C across sources (e.g., 7°C per NZ Herald/MetService, ~9°C per WeatherBug), with uncertainty stemming from exact frontal timing, wind gusts disrupting boundary-layer mixing, and precipitation rates that can suppress or enhance minimums via latent heat and cloud insulation. Ensemble spreads highlight sensitivity to these variables, keeping implied probabilities closely matched as traders weigh model consensus against historical spring variability in the region.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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