Recent forecasts from GFS and European models indicate clear to partly cloudy skies and light easterly winds over Paris overnight into September 6, 2026, supporting radiative cooling that positions the minimum temperature near 13–14 °C. These conditions align with the market-implied probabilities favoring 13 °C (44 %) and 12 °C (31 %), consistent with typical early-September nocturnal cooling rates under high pressure and low humidity. Ensemble guidance shows limited spread, with most runs clustering between 12–15 °C and minimal risk of warmer air advection or increased cloud cover that would elevate the low. Traders are weighting the current model consensus and historical analogs for similar synoptic patterns, where minima have frequently settled in this narrow range absent significant perturbations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Paris on September 6?
Lowest temperature in Paris on September 6?
13°C 58%
12°C 47%
14°C 32%
15°C 7%
NEW
NEW
Sep 6, 2026
10°C or below
2%
11°C
3%
12°C
32%
13°C
49%
14°C
27%
15°C
7%
16°C
2%
17°C
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C or higher
<1%
13°C 58%
12°C 47%
14°C 32%
15°C 7%
NEW
NEW
Sep 6, 2026
10°C or below
$5 Vol.
2%
11°C
$0 Vol.
3%
12°C
$799 Vol.
32%
13°C
$586 Vol.
49%
14°C
$510 Vol.
27%
15°C
$21 Vol.
7%
16°C
$0 Vol.
2%
17°C
$55 Vol.
<1%
18°C
$45 Vol.
<1%
19°C
$45 Vol.
<1%
20°C or higher
$96 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from GFS and European models indicate clear to partly cloudy skies and light easterly winds over Paris overnight into September 6, 2026, supporting radiative cooling that positions the minimum temperature near 13–14 °C. These conditions align with the market-implied probabilities favoring 13 °C (44 %) and 12 °C (31 %), consistent with typical early-September nocturnal cooling rates under high pressure and low humidity. Ensemble guidance shows limited spread, with most runs clustering between 12–15 °C and minimal risk of warmer air advection or increased cloud cover that would elevate the low. Traders are weighting the current model consensus and historical analogs for similar synoptic patterns, where minima have frequently settled in this narrow range absent significant perturbations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 4, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Volume
$2,161End Date
Sep 6, 2026Market Opened
Sep 4, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpbResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from GFS and European models indicate clear to partly cloudy skies and light easterly winds over Paris overnight into September 6, 2026, supporting radiative cooling that positions the minimum temperature near 13–14 °C. These conditions align with the market-implied probabilities favoring 13 °C (44 %) and 12 °C (31 %), consistent with typical early-September nocturnal cooling rates under high pressure and low humidity. Ensemble guidance shows limited spread, with most runs clustering between 12–15 °C and minimal risk of warmer air advection or increased cloud cover that would elevate the low. Traders are weighting the current model consensus and historical analogs for similar synoptic patterns, where minima have frequently settled in this narrow range absent significant perturbations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$2,161End Date
Sep 6, 2026Market Opened
Sep 4, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpbResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from GFS and European models indicate clear to partly cloudy skies and light easterly winds over Paris overnight into September 6, 2026, supporting radiative cooling that positions the minimum temperature near 13–14 °C. These conditions align with the market-implied probabilities favoring 13 °C (44 %) and 12 °C (31 %), consistent with typical early-September nocturnal cooling rates under high pressure and low humidity. Ensemble guidance shows limited spread, with most runs clustering between 12–15 °C and minimal risk of warmer air advection or increased cloud cover that would elevate the low. Traders are weighting the current model consensus and historical analogs for similar synoptic patterns, where minima have frequently settled in this narrow range absent significant perturbations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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