**Recent official forecasts from Russia's Hydrometcenter and global models like GFS indicate Moscow's September 6 minimum will likely fall in the 9–11°C range, driving the near-even market-implied odds around 33–34% for each.** Overnight radiative cooling under persistent cloud cover and light westerly winds, combined with scattered rain and moderate humidity near 85–95%, limits sharp temperature drops while preventing significant warming. Historical climatology shows an average low of ~9.7°C for the date, with model consensus narrowing the spread amid stable synoptic patterns and no strong cold-air advection. Key variables differentiating the close outcomes include precise timing of the daily minimum, localized urban heat effects, and minor forecast revisions from updated runs. Traders are monitoring final observational data and any late-model shifts before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Moscow on September 6?
Lowest temperature in Moscow on September 6?
10°C 43%
11°C 43%
8°C 42%
12°C 42%
NEW
NEW
Sep 6, 2026
6°C or below
14%
7°C
39%
8°C
42%
9°C
41%
10°C
43%
11°C
43%
12°C
42%
13°C
<1%
14°C
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C or higher
<1%
10°C 43%
11°C 43%
8°C 42%
12°C 42%
NEW
NEW
Sep 6, 2026
6°C or below
$5 Vol.
14%
7°C
$10 Vol.
39%
8°C
$0 Vol.
42%
9°C
$0 Vol.
41%
10°C
$0 Vol.
43%
11°C
$0 Vol.
43%
12°C
$0 Vol.
42%
13°C
$35 Vol.
<1%
14°C
$35 Vol.
<1%
15°C
$173 Vol.
<1%
16°C or higher
$35 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Recent official forecasts from Russia's Hydrometcenter and global models like GFS indicate Moscow's September 6 minimum will likely fall in the 9–11°C range, driving the near-even market-implied odds around 33–34% for each.** Overnight radiative cooling under persistent cloud cover and light westerly winds, combined with scattered rain and moderate humidity near 85–95%, limits sharp temperature drops while preventing significant warming. Historical climatology shows an average low of ~9.7°C for the date, with model consensus narrowing the spread amid stable synoptic patterns and no strong cold-air advection. Key variables differentiating the close outcomes include precise timing of the daily minimum, localized urban heat effects, and minor forecast revisions from updated runs. Traders are monitoring final observational data and any late-model shifts before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 4, 2026, 12:31 AM ET
Volume
$293End Date
Sep 6, 2026Market Opened
Sep 4, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Recent official forecasts from Russia's Hydrometcenter and global models like GFS indicate Moscow's September 6 minimum will likely fall in the 9–11°C range, driving the near-even market-implied odds around 33–34% for each.** Overnight radiative cooling under persistent cloud cover and light westerly winds, combined with scattered rain and moderate humidity near 85–95%, limits sharp temperature drops while preventing significant warming. Historical climatology shows an average low of ~9.7°C for the date, with model consensus narrowing the spread amid stable synoptic patterns and no strong cold-air advection. Key variables differentiating the close outcomes include precise timing of the daily minimum, localized urban heat effects, and minor forecast revisions from updated runs. Traders are monitoring final observational data and any late-model shifts before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$293End Date
Sep 6, 2026Market Opened
Sep 4, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Recent official forecasts from Russia's Hydrometcenter and global models like GFS indicate Moscow's September 6 minimum will likely fall in the 9–11°C range, driving the near-even market-implied odds around 33–34% for each.** Overnight radiative cooling under persistent cloud cover and light westerly winds, combined with scattered rain and moderate humidity near 85–95%, limits sharp temperature drops while preventing significant warming. Historical climatology shows an average low of ~9.7°C for the date, with model consensus narrowing the spread amid stable synoptic patterns and no strong cold-air advection. Key variables differentiating the close outcomes include precise timing of the daily minimum, localized urban heat effects, and minor forecast revisions from updated runs. Traders are monitoring final observational data and any late-model shifts before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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