Recent forecasts from the Chengdu Meteorological Observatory and international models indicate an overnight low near 23–25°C on September 6, driven by persistent warm, humid subtropical air under partly cloudy skies that limit radiative cooling. High daytime temperatures near 33–35°C from the lingering “autumn tiger” pattern maintain elevated boundary-layer moisture, while light winds and urban heat retention narrow the diurnal range. Model consensus shows only modest overnight drops, with slight variations in cloud cover and dew-point depression creating the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around 22–24°C. Newer high-resolution runs and local observations expected before midnight will refine the exact minimum, which resolves the market.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Chengdu on September 6?
Lowest temperature in Chengdu on September 6?
21°C 50%
20°C or below 40%
23°C 28%
22°C 27%
NEW
NEW
Sep 6, 2026
20°C or below
40%
21°C
50%
22°C
27%
23°C
28%
24°C
27%
25°C
26%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C or higher
<1%
21°C 50%
20°C or below 40%
23°C 28%
22°C 27%
NEW
NEW
Sep 6, 2026
20°C or below
$0 Vol.
40%
21°C
$0 Vol.
50%
22°C
$0 Vol.
27%
23°C
$0 Vol.
28%
24°C
$0 Vol.
27%
25°C
$1 Vol.
26%
26°C
$74 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$35 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$35 Vol.
<1%
29°C
$35 Vol.
<1%
30°C or higher
$35 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from the Chengdu Meteorological Observatory and international models indicate an overnight low near 23–25°C on September 6, driven by persistent warm, humid subtropical air under partly cloudy skies that limit radiative cooling. High daytime temperatures near 33–35°C from the lingering “autumn tiger” pattern maintain elevated boundary-layer moisture, while light winds and urban heat retention narrow the diurnal range. Model consensus shows only modest overnight drops, with slight variations in cloud cover and dew-point depression creating the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around 22–24°C. Newer high-resolution runs and local observations expected before midnight will refine the exact minimum, which resolves the market.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 4, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$215End Date
Sep 6, 2026Market Opened
Sep 4, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuuResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from the Chengdu Meteorological Observatory and international models indicate an overnight low near 23–25°C on September 6, driven by persistent warm, humid subtropical air under partly cloudy skies that limit radiative cooling. High daytime temperatures near 33–35°C from the lingering “autumn tiger” pattern maintain elevated boundary-layer moisture, while light winds and urban heat retention narrow the diurnal range. Model consensus shows only modest overnight drops, with slight variations in cloud cover and dew-point depression creating the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around 22–24°C. Newer high-resolution runs and local observations expected before midnight will refine the exact minimum, which resolves the market.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$215End Date
Sep 6, 2026Market Opened
Sep 4, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuuResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from the Chengdu Meteorological Observatory and international models indicate an overnight low near 23–25°C on September 6, driven by persistent warm, humid subtropical air under partly cloudy skies that limit radiative cooling. High daytime temperatures near 33–35°C from the lingering “autumn tiger” pattern maintain elevated boundary-layer moisture, while light winds and urban heat retention narrow the diurnal range. Model consensus shows only modest overnight drops, with slight variations in cloud cover and dew-point depression creating the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around 22–24°C. Newer high-resolution runs and local observations expected before midnight will refine the exact minimum, which resolves the market.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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