Forecast models from sources including the Chengdu Meteorological Bureau and international agencies point to a minimum temperature in the low-to-mid 20s Celsius for September 7, driven by residual warmth from preceding high-pressure conditions and limited nocturnal cooling under partly cloudy skies ahead of an incoming frontal system. Scattered showers or thunderstorms, with probabilities rising to 60-70% by evening, could enhance cooling through increased cloud cover and evaporative effects, while light winds and moderate humidity around 60% limit radiative losses. This setup creates genuine uncertainty between outcomes near 23-25°C versus slightly warmer readings if clearing occurs earlier, consistent with the closely matched market-implied odds around 24-25°C and the split between higher and lower thresholds. Updated model runs and local observations over the next 24 hours will refine the overnight minimum before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Chengdu on September 7?
Lowest temperature in Chengdu on September 7?
21°C or below 82%
22°C 49%
27°C 49%
28°C 49%
NEW
NEW
Sep 7, 2026
21°C or below
82%
22°C
49%
23°C
27%
24°C
27%
25°C
34%
26°C
32%
27°C
49%
28°C
49%
29°C
8%
30°C
8%
31°C or higher
46%
21°C or below 82%
22°C 49%
27°C 49%
28°C 49%
NEW
NEW
Sep 7, 2026
21°C or below
$0 Vol.
82%
22°C
$0 Vol.
49%
23°C
$0 Vol.
27%
24°C
$0 Vol.
27%
25°C
$0 Vol.
34%
26°C
$0 Vol.
32%
27°C
$0 Vol.
49%
28°C
$0 Vol.
49%
29°C
$0 Vol.
8%
30°C
$0 Vol.
8%
31°C or higher
$0 Vol.
46%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from sources including the Chengdu Meteorological Bureau and international agencies point to a minimum temperature in the low-to-mid 20s Celsius for September 7, driven by residual warmth from preceding high-pressure conditions and limited nocturnal cooling under partly cloudy skies ahead of an incoming frontal system. Scattered showers or thunderstorms, with probabilities rising to 60-70% by evening, could enhance cooling through increased cloud cover and evaporative effects, while light winds and moderate humidity around 60% limit radiative losses. This setup creates genuine uncertainty between outcomes near 23-25°C versus slightly warmer readings if clearing occurs earlier, consistent with the closely matched market-implied odds around 24-25°C and the split between higher and lower thresholds. Updated model runs and local observations over the next 24 hours will refine the overnight minimum before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 5, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 7, 2026Market Opened
Sep 5, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuuResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from sources including the Chengdu Meteorological Bureau and international agencies point to a minimum temperature in the low-to-mid 20s Celsius for September 7, driven by residual warmth from preceding high-pressure conditions and limited nocturnal cooling under partly cloudy skies ahead of an incoming frontal system. Scattered showers or thunderstorms, with probabilities rising to 60-70% by evening, could enhance cooling through increased cloud cover and evaporative effects, while light winds and moderate humidity around 60% limit radiative losses. This setup creates genuine uncertainty between outcomes near 23-25°C versus slightly warmer readings if clearing occurs earlier, consistent with the closely matched market-implied odds around 24-25°C and the split between higher and lower thresholds. Updated model runs and local observations over the next 24 hours will refine the overnight minimum before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 7, 2026Market Opened
Sep 5, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuuResolver
0x69c47De9D...Forecast models from sources including the Chengdu Meteorological Bureau and international agencies point to a minimum temperature in the low-to-mid 20s Celsius for September 7, driven by residual warmth from preceding high-pressure conditions and limited nocturnal cooling under partly cloudy skies ahead of an incoming frontal system. Scattered showers or thunderstorms, with probabilities rising to 60-70% by evening, could enhance cooling through increased cloud cover and evaporative effects, while light winds and moderate humidity around 60% limit radiative losses. This setup creates genuine uncertainty between outcomes near 23-25°C versus slightly warmer readings if clearing occurs earlier, consistent with the closely matched market-implied odds around 24-25°C and the split between higher and lower thresholds. Updated model runs and local observations over the next 24 hours will refine the overnight minimum before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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