**Forecast consensus points to a minimum temperature near 24°C in Chengdu on September 6, 2026, consistent with the closely matched market probabilities clustered between 22–25°C.** Official and ensemble forecasts from Chinese meteorological sources and international models indicate overnight lows of 23–25°C under partly cloudy to mostly clear conditions, following daytime highs of 33–35°C. This reflects the lingering influence of a strong subtropical high that has produced above-average warmth in early September, with recent observed lows around 23°C. High humidity (often 50–80%) and light winds limit radiative cooling, while the urban heat island effect in Chengdu further moderates nighttime drops. The absence of significant cloud cover or precipitation on the 6th supports temperatures in the upper-20s °C range rather than cooler values. The tight spread in implied probabilities (roughly 25–28% each for 22°C, 23°C, and 24°C) captures genuine forecast uncertainty from minor differences in model runs—such as exact wind patterns, dew-point evolution, or localized cloud timing—rather than any major divergence in guidance. Historical climatology for early September shows typical lows near 21–23°C, but the current warm anomaly and delayed seasonal transition keep the distribution shifted slightly higher. New official updates from the Chengdu Meteorological Observatory or refined model outputs in the next 12–24 hours could narrow the range further as the overnight period approaches.