Forecast models for Ankara on September 7 project overnight lows of 12–16°C under clear skies and light northerly winds, supporting the clustered market-implied odds around 12–14°C. Radiative cooling overnight, aided by Ankara’s 870 m elevation and low humidity, drives the minimum typically occurring near dawn, while model differences in wind speed and boundary-layer mixing create the spread between 12°C and 14°C outcomes. Recent days have shown similar cooling trends with highs near 29–32°C, and no major synoptic shifts are expected before resolution. Traders appear to weigh consensus from ensembles like ECMWF and GFS against historical September minima near 11–14°C.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Ankara on September 7?
Lowest temperature in Ankara on September 7?
15°C 49%
16°C 49%
17°C 41%
13°C 36%
NEW
NEW
Sep 7, 2026
9°C or below
<1%
10°C
1%
11°C
27%
12°C
35%
13°C
36%
14°C
29%
15°C
49%
16°C
49%
17°C
41%
18°C
<1%
19°C or higher
<1%
15°C 49%
16°C 49%
17°C 41%
13°C 36%
NEW
NEW
Sep 7, 2026
9°C or below
$0 Vol.
<1%
10°C
$0 Vol.
1%
11°C
$0 Vol.
27%
12°C
$0 Vol.
35%
13°C
$0 Vol.
36%
14°C
$0 Vol.
29%
15°C
$0 Vol.
49%
16°C
$0 Vol.
49%
17°C
$0 Vol.
41%
18°C
$0 Vol.
<1%
19°C or higher
$0 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltac
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models for Ankara on September 7 project overnight lows of 12–16°C under clear skies and light northerly winds, supporting the clustered market-implied odds around 12–14°C. Radiative cooling overnight, aided by Ankara’s 870 m elevation and low humidity, drives the minimum typically occurring near dawn, while model differences in wind speed and boundary-layer mixing create the spread between 12°C and 14°C outcomes. Recent days have shown similar cooling trends with highs near 29–32°C, and no major synoptic shifts are expected before resolution. Traders appear to weigh consensus from ensembles like ECMWF and GFS against historical September minima near 11–14°C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltac
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltac
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 5, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 7, 2026Market Opened
Sep 5, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltacResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltac
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models for Ankara on September 7 project overnight lows of 12–16°C under clear skies and light northerly winds, supporting the clustered market-implied odds around 12–14°C. Radiative cooling overnight, aided by Ankara’s 870 m elevation and low humidity, drives the minimum typically occurring near dawn, while model differences in wind speed and boundary-layer mixing create the spread between 12°C and 14°C outcomes. Recent days have shown similar cooling trends with highs near 29–32°C, and no major synoptic shifts are expected before resolution. Traders appear to weigh consensus from ensembles like ECMWF and GFS against historical September minima near 11–14°C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltac
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltac
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 7, 2026Market Opened
Sep 5, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltacResolver
0x69c47De9D...Forecast models for Ankara on September 7 project overnight lows of 12–16°C under clear skies and light northerly winds, supporting the clustered market-implied odds around 12–14°C. Radiative cooling overnight, aided by Ankara’s 870 m elevation and low humidity, drives the minimum typically occurring near dawn, while model differences in wind speed and boundary-layer mixing create the spread between 12°C and 14°C outcomes. Recent days have shown similar cooling trends with highs near 29–32°C, and no major synoptic shifts are expected before resolution. Traders appear to weigh consensus from ensembles like ECMWF and GFS against historical September minima near 11–14°C.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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