Louisiana's 1st congressional district carries a Cook Partisan Voter Index of R+20, anchoring trader consensus around a Republican victory in the November 3 open primary, with a possible December 12 runoff. Incumbent Steve Scalise, the House majority leader, faces limited opposition from fellow Republican Randall Arrington, Democrat Lauren Jewett, and unaffiliated candidate Liddy Glass. Scalise's substantial fundraising edge and the district's consistent Republican performance in recent presidential and House elections reinforce the implied probability reflected in current pricing. All major forecasters rate the seat solid or safe Republican. Late developments such as a major scandal, health-related withdrawal, or unusually high Democratic turnout in the jungle primary format could theoretically alter the outcome, though the structural advantages make such shifts improbable.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLA-01 House Election Winner
LA-01 House Election Winner
$52,223 Vol.
$52,223 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Republican Party
97%
Democratic Party
5%
$52,223 Vol.
$52,223 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Republican Party
$22,399 Vol.
97%
Democratic Party
$29,823 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the LA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Louisiana's 1st congressional district carries a Cook Partisan Voter Index of R+20, anchoring trader consensus around a Republican victory in the November 3 open primary, with a possible December 12 runoff. Incumbent Steve Scalise, the House majority leader, faces limited opposition from fellow Republican Randall Arrington, Democrat Lauren Jewett, and unaffiliated candidate Liddy Glass. Scalise's substantial fundraising edge and the district's consistent Republican performance in recent presidential and House elections reinforce the implied probability reflected in current pricing. All major forecasters rate the seat solid or safe Republican. Late developments such as a major scandal, health-related withdrawal, or unusually high Democratic turnout in the jungle primary format could theoretically alter the outcome, though the structural advantages make such shifts improbable.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the LA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
Volume
$52,223End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the LA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Louisiana's 1st congressional district carries a Cook Partisan Voter Index of R+20, anchoring trader consensus around a Republican victory in the November 3 open primary, with a possible December 12 runoff. Incumbent Steve Scalise, the House majority leader, faces limited opposition from fellow Republican Randall Arrington, Democrat Lauren Jewett, and unaffiliated candidate Liddy Glass. Scalise's substantial fundraising edge and the district's consistent Republican performance in recent presidential and House elections reinforce the implied probability reflected in current pricing. All major forecasters rate the seat solid or safe Republican. Late developments such as a major scandal, health-related withdrawal, or unusually high Democratic turnout in the jungle primary format could theoretically alter the outcome, though the structural advantages make such shifts improbable.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the LA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$52,223End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Louisiana's 1st congressional district carries a Cook Partisan Voter Index of R+20, anchoring trader consensus around a Republican victory in the November 3 open primary, with a possible December 12 runoff. Incumbent Steve Scalise, the House majority leader, faces limited opposition from fellow Republican Randall Arrington, Democrat Lauren Jewett, and unaffiliated candidate Liddy Glass. Scalise's substantial fundraising edge and the district's consistent Republican performance in recent presidential and House elections reinforce the implied probability reflected in current pricing. All major forecasters rate the seat solid or safe Republican. Late developments such as a major scandal, health-related withdrawal, or unusually high Democratic turnout in the jungle primary format could theoretically alter the outcome, though the structural advantages make such shifts improbable.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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