Incumbent Republican Brett Guthrie secured his party's nomination with over 85% of the primary vote in May 2026, facing Democrat Megan Wingfield in the November general election for Kentucky's 2nd congressional district. The seat carries a strong R+20 partisan voter index, consistent with its history of Republican dominance and no incumbent defeat since the 19th century. Nonpartisan analysts rate the race as solid or safe Republican, reflecting limited Democratic infrastructure and fundraising gaps. Traders price the Republican outcome near 95% due to these structural factors. Late developments such as a significant scandal, health event affecting the incumbent, or an unexpected national political shift could theoretically alter the contest before November 3, though none have materialized in the current cycle.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedKY-02 House Election Winner
KY-02 House Election Winner
$13,761 Vol.
$13,761 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Republican Party
95%
Democratic Party
5%
$13,761 Vol.
$13,761 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Republican Party
$6,290 Vol.
95%
Democratic Party
$7,471 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the KY-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Brett Guthrie secured his party's nomination with over 85% of the primary vote in May 2026, facing Democrat Megan Wingfield in the November general election for Kentucky's 2nd congressional district. The seat carries a strong R+20 partisan voter index, consistent with its history of Republican dominance and no incumbent defeat since the 19th century. Nonpartisan analysts rate the race as solid or safe Republican, reflecting limited Democratic infrastructure and fundraising gaps. Traders price the Republican outcome near 95% due to these structural factors. Late developments such as a significant scandal, health event affecting the incumbent, or an unexpected national political shift could theoretically alter the contest before November 3, though none have materialized in the current cycle.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the KY-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
Volume
$13,761End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the KY-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Brett Guthrie secured his party's nomination with over 85% of the primary vote in May 2026, facing Democrat Megan Wingfield in the November general election for Kentucky's 2nd congressional district. The seat carries a strong R+20 partisan voter index, consistent with its history of Republican dominance and no incumbent defeat since the 19th century. Nonpartisan analysts rate the race as solid or safe Republican, reflecting limited Democratic infrastructure and fundraising gaps. Traders price the Republican outcome near 95% due to these structural factors. Late developments such as a significant scandal, health event affecting the incumbent, or an unexpected national political shift could theoretically alter the contest before November 3, though none have materialized in the current cycle.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the KY-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$13,761End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Brett Guthrie secured his party's nomination with over 85% of the primary vote in May 2026, facing Democrat Megan Wingfield in the November general election for Kentucky's 2nd congressional district. The seat carries a strong R+20 partisan voter index, consistent with its history of Republican dominance and no incumbent defeat since the 19th century. Nonpartisan analysts rate the race as solid or safe Republican, reflecting limited Democratic infrastructure and fundraising gaps. Traders price the Republican outcome near 95% due to these structural factors. Late developments such as a significant scandal, health event affecting the incumbent, or an unexpected national political shift could theoretically alter the contest before November 3, though none have materialized in the current cycle.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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