Incumbent Kuomintang mayor Hsieh Kuo-liang holds a commanding position in the November 28 Keelung mayoral race, with traders assigning him an 85.5% implied probability of victory. His survival of a 2024 recall vote and focus on flood relief, infrastructure, and investment have reinforced support in a traditionally KMT-leaning city. Democratic Progressive Party challenger Tung Tzu-wei, the city council speaker, has narrowed the gap in late-August polling to roughly five points overall and near parity among likely voters, gaining traction with younger demographics. A third independent candidate registered but remains a minor factor. The wisdom of crowds reflected in current pricing emphasizes Hsieh's incumbency edge and structural advantages over the competitive polling environment.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNEW
NEW
Jun 30, 2027
Hsieh Kuo-liang
86%
Tung Tzu-wei
12%
NEW
NEW
Jun 30, 2027
Hsieh Kuo-liang
$1,127 Vol.
86%
Tung Tzu-wei
$656 Vol.
12%
Taiwanese local elections are scheduled to be held on November 28, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Mayor of Keelung as a result of this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder Mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known, or no candidate has been elected, by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Taiwanese government, specifically the Central Election Commission (https://db.cec.gov.tw/).Incumbent Kuomintang mayor Hsieh Kuo-liang holds a commanding position in the November 28 Keelung mayoral race, with traders assigning him an 85.5% implied probability of victory. His survival of a 2024 recall vote and focus on flood relief, infrastructure, and investment have reinforced support in a traditionally KMT-leaning city. Democratic Progressive Party challenger Tung Tzu-wei, the city council speaker, has narrowed the gap in late-August polling to roughly five points overall and near parity among likely voters, gaining traction with younger demographics. A third independent candidate registered but remains a minor factor. The wisdom of crowds reflected in current pricing emphasizes Hsieh's incumbency edge and structural advantages over the competitive polling environment.
Taiwanese local elections are scheduled to be held on November 28, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Mayor of Keelung as a result of this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder Mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known, or no candidate has been elected, by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Taiwanese government, specifically the Central Election Commission (https://db.cec.gov.tw/).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Mayor of Keelung as a result of this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder Mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known, or no candidate has been elected, by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Taiwanese government, specifically the Central Election Commission (https://db.cec.gov.tw/).
Market Opened: Aug 14, 2026, 8:52 AM ET
Volume
$1,783End Date
Nov 28, 2026Market Opened
Aug 14, 2026, 8:52 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Taiwanese local elections are scheduled to be held on November 28, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Mayor of Keelung as a result of this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder Mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known, or no candidate has been elected, by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Taiwanese government, specifically the Central Election Commission (https://db.cec.gov.tw/).Incumbent Kuomintang mayor Hsieh Kuo-liang holds a commanding position in the November 28 Keelung mayoral race, with traders assigning him an 85.5% implied probability of victory. His survival of a 2024 recall vote and focus on flood relief, infrastructure, and investment have reinforced support in a traditionally KMT-leaning city. Democratic Progressive Party challenger Tung Tzu-wei, the city council speaker, has narrowed the gap in late-August polling to roughly five points overall and near parity among likely voters, gaining traction with younger demographics. A third independent candidate registered but remains a minor factor. The wisdom of crowds reflected in current pricing emphasizes Hsieh's incumbency edge and structural advantages over the competitive polling environment.
Taiwanese local elections are scheduled to be held on November 28, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Mayor of Keelung as a result of this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder Mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known, or no candidate has been elected, by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Taiwanese government, specifically the Central Election Commission (https://db.cec.gov.tw/).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Mayor of Keelung as a result of this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder Mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known, or no candidate has been elected, by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Taiwanese government, specifically the Central Election Commission (https://db.cec.gov.tw/).
Volume
$1,783End Date
Nov 28, 2026Market Opened
Aug 14, 2026, 8:52 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Incumbent Kuomintang mayor Hsieh Kuo-liang holds a commanding position in the November 28 Keelung mayoral race, with traders assigning him an 85.5% implied probability of victory. His survival of a 2024 recall vote and focus on flood relief, infrastructure, and investment have reinforced support in a traditionally KMT-leaning city. Democratic Progressive Party challenger Tung Tzu-wei, the city council speaker, has narrowed the gap in late-August polling to roughly five points overall and near parity among likely voters, gaining traction with younger demographics. A third independent candidate registered but remains a minor factor. The wisdom of crowds reflected in current pricing emphasizes Hsieh's incumbency edge and structural advantages over the competitive polling environment.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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