The Justice Department’s April 2026 closure of its criminal probe into Fed Chair Jerome Powell over headquarters renovation cost overruns—now estimated near $2.5 billion—anchors near-zero implied probabilities of federal charges by year-end. A federal judge had earlier quashed related grand-jury subpoenas, citing essentially zero evidence of misconduct and describing the inquiry as pretextual pressure tied to monetary-policy disputes rather than verifiable false statements in Powell’s June 2025 congressional testimony. Referral of the matter to the Fed inspector general, who previously identified no fraud, further reduces prospects for indictment. With the probe dormant since spring and Powell’s chair term concluded, trader consensus backed by real capital reflects strong institutional barriers and evidentiary thresholds that would need to be overcome for any reversal.