**Persistent tensions in the Strait of Hormuz amid the US-Iran conflict continue to drive high trader-implied probabilities for another Iranian kinetic strike or seizure of commercial shipping by September 30.** Iran has repeatedly targeted vessels to enforce preferred transit routes and counter blockades or sanctions, with confirmed incidents including drone and missile strikes on tankers in June and July 2026 that resolved earlier ladder markets. Recent developments feature Iran's August blacklisting of 45 tankers for rule violations, threats of fines or confiscation, and efforts to reconstitute radar and anti-ship capabilities despite US strikes clearing mines and degrading assets. Shipping volumes have risen toward pre-conflict levels on some routes, yet volatility persists with dark transits, IRGC warnings, and proxy-related risks excluded from resolution criteria. The market prices later dates near 89-91% yes, reflecting trader consensus on recurring escalation incentives before the resolution window closes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedIran successfully targets shipping by...?
Iran successfully targets shipping by...?
$20,842 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
August 31
100%
$20,842 Vol.
August 31
$13,806 Vol.
100%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or seize control of a commercial ship between market creation and the specified date IRST (UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.**Persistent tensions in the Strait of Hormuz amid the US-Iran conflict continue to drive high trader-implied probabilities for another Iranian kinetic strike or seizure of commercial shipping by September 30.** Iran has repeatedly targeted vessels to enforce preferred transit routes and counter blockades or sanctions, with confirmed incidents including drone and missile strikes on tankers in June and July 2026 that resolved earlier ladder markets. Recent developments feature Iran's August blacklisting of 45 tankers for rule violations, threats of fines or confiscation, and efforts to reconstitute radar and anti-ship capabilities despite US strikes clearing mines and degrading assets. Shipping volumes have risen toward pre-conflict levels on some routes, yet volatility persists with dark transits, IRGC warnings, and proxy-related risks excluded from resolution criteria. The market prices later dates near 89-91% yes, reflecting trader consensus on recurring escalation incentives before the resolution window closes.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or seize control of a commercial ship between market creation and the specified date IRST (UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.
Market Opened: Aug 24, 2026, 8:06 PM ET
Volume
$20,842End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 24, 2026, 8:06 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Outcome proposed: No
Disputed
Outcome proposed: Yes
Disputed
Final review
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or seize control of a commercial ship between market creation and the specified date IRST (UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.**Persistent tensions in the Strait of Hormuz amid the US-Iran conflict continue to drive high trader-implied probabilities for another Iranian kinetic strike or seizure of commercial shipping by September 30.** Iran has repeatedly targeted vessels to enforce preferred transit routes and counter blockades or sanctions, with confirmed incidents including drone and missile strikes on tankers in June and July 2026 that resolved earlier ladder markets. Recent developments feature Iran's August blacklisting of 45 tankers for rule violations, threats of fines or confiscation, and efforts to reconstitute radar and anti-ship capabilities despite US strikes clearing mines and degrading assets. Shipping volumes have risen toward pre-conflict levels on some routes, yet volatility persists with dark transits, IRGC warnings, and proxy-related risks excluded from resolution criteria. The market prices later dates near 89-91% yes, reflecting trader consensus on recurring escalation incentives before the resolution window closes.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or seize control of a commercial ship between market creation and the specified date IRST (UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.
Volume
$20,842End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 24, 2026, 8:06 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Outcome proposed: No
Disputed
Outcome proposed: Yes
Disputed
Final review
**Persistent tensions in the Strait of Hormuz amid the US-Iran conflict continue to drive high trader-implied probabilities for another Iranian kinetic strike or seizure of commercial shipping by September 30.** Iran has repeatedly targeted vessels to enforce preferred transit routes and counter blockades or sanctions, with confirmed incidents including drone and missile strikes on tankers in June and July 2026 that resolved earlier ladder markets. Recent developments feature Iran's August blacklisting of 45 tankers for rule violations, threats of fines or confiscation, and efforts to reconstitute radar and anti-ship capabilities despite US strikes clearing mines and degrading assets. Shipping volumes have risen toward pre-conflict levels on some routes, yet volatility persists with dark transits, IRGC warnings, and proxy-related risks excluded from resolution criteria. The market prices later dates near 89-91% yes, reflecting trader consensus on recurring escalation incentives before the resolution window closes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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