Iran’s nuclear infrastructure sustained extensive damage from U.S. and Israeli strikes in 2025 and early 2026, leaving key enrichment sites such as Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan with backfilled tunnels and restricted IAEA access. Roughly 440 kilograms of uranium enriched to 60 percent remains unverified in location and status, while satellite imagery shows limited reconstruction activity at sites like Pickaxe Mountain without confirmed resumption of enrichment or weaponization work. Tehran has reaffirmed its NPT commitment and engaged in fragile diplomatic channels, including a June 2026 memorandum addressing stockpile disposition, amid internal elite debates on deterrence that have not altered official policy. With only months remaining before 2027, these constraints underpin the 95.5 percent trader consensus against a test. Late diplomatic breakdown, NPT withdrawal, or undetected acceleration at hardened facilities represent the primary pathways that could still shift the outcome.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedIran nuclear test before 2027?
Iran nuclear test before 2027?
5% chance
$251,689 Vol.
$251,689 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
5% chance
$251,689 Vol.
$251,689 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Iran’s nuclear infrastructure sustained extensive damage from U.S. and Israeli strikes in 2025 and early 2026, leaving key enrichment sites such as Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan with backfilled tunnels and restricted IAEA access. Roughly 440 kilograms of uranium enriched to 60 percent remains unverified in location and status, while satellite imagery shows limited reconstruction activity at sites like Pickaxe Mountain without confirmed resumption of enrichment or weaponization work. Tehran has reaffirmed its NPT commitment and engaged in fragile diplomatic channels, including a June 2026 memorandum addressing stockpile disposition, amid internal elite debates on deterrence that have not altered official policy. With only months remaining before 2027, these constraints underpin the 95.5 percent trader consensus against a test. Late diplomatic breakdown, NPT withdrawal, or undetected acceleration at hardened facilities represent the primary pathways that could still shift the outcome.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ET
Volume
$251,689End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Iran’s nuclear infrastructure sustained extensive damage from U.S. and Israeli strikes in 2025 and early 2026, leaving key enrichment sites such as Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan with backfilled tunnels and restricted IAEA access. Roughly 440 kilograms of uranium enriched to 60 percent remains unverified in location and status, while satellite imagery shows limited reconstruction activity at sites like Pickaxe Mountain without confirmed resumption of enrichment or weaponization work. Tehran has reaffirmed its NPT commitment and engaged in fragile diplomatic channels, including a June 2026 memorandum addressing stockpile disposition, amid internal elite debates on deterrence that have not altered official policy. With only months remaining before 2027, these constraints underpin the 95.5 percent trader consensus against a test. Late diplomatic breakdown, NPT withdrawal, or undetected acceleration at hardened facilities represent the primary pathways that could still shift the outcome.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$251,689End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Iran’s nuclear infrastructure sustained extensive damage from U.S. and Israeli strikes in 2025 and early 2026, leaving key enrichment sites such as Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan with backfilled tunnels and restricted IAEA access. Roughly 440 kilograms of uranium enriched to 60 percent remains unverified in location and status, while satellite imagery shows limited reconstruction activity at sites like Pickaxe Mountain without confirmed resumption of enrichment or weaponization work. Tehran has reaffirmed its NPT commitment and engaged in fragile diplomatic channels, including a June 2026 memorandum addressing stockpile disposition, amid internal elite debates on deterrence that have not altered official policy. With only months remaining before 2027, these constraints underpin the 95.5 percent trader consensus against a test. Late diplomatic breakdown, NPT withdrawal, or undetected acceleration at hardened facilities represent the primary pathways that could still shift the outcome.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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