Skip to main content

To trade in the US, go to polymarket.us

icon for Iran leader end of 2026?
World·Middle East

Iran leader end of 2026?

icon for Iran leader end of 2026?
World·Middle East

Iran leader end of 2026?

Mojtaba Khamenei 84.7%

No Head of State 4.5%

Reza Pahlavi 2.9%

Mahmoud Ahmadinejad 1.4%

Polymarket

$39,308,421 Vol.

Mojtaba Khamenei 84.7%

No Head of State 4.5%

Reza Pahlavi 2.9%

Mahmoud Ahmadinejad 1.4%

Polymarket

$39,308,421 Vol.

Mojtaba Khamenei

$6,458,098 Vol.

85%

No Head of State

$1,159,018 Vol.

5%

Reza Pahlavi

$678,670 Vol.

3%

Mahmoud Ahmadinejad

$1,127,920 Vol.

1%

Alireza Arafi

$2,317,098 Vol.

1%

Ahmad Vahidi

$779,925 Vol.

1%

Masoud Pezeshkian

$1,021,457 Vol.

1%

Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf

$921,222 Vol.

1%

Hassan Rouhani

$945,771 Vol.

<1%

Hassan Khomeini

$1,434,490 Vol.

<1%

Abbas Araghchi

$834,563 Vol.

<1%

Muhammad Mirbaqiri

$441,578 Vol.

<1%

Sadegh Larijani

$544,268 Vol.

<1%

Hassan Shariatmadari

$3,153,763 Vol.

<1%

Massoud Rajavi

$406,000 Vol.

<1%

Seyed Hossein Mousavian

$3,694,989 Vol.

<1%

Reza Pirzadeh

$150,588 Vol.

<1%

Navid Shomali

$226,882 Vol.

<1%

Ali Motahari

$839,549 Vol.

<1%

Gholam-Ali Haddad-Adel

$440,504 Vol.

<1%

Mostafa Pourmohammadi

$3,357,160 Vol.

<1%

Sadegh Mahsouli

$243,506 Vol.

<1%

Saeed Jalili

$394,901 Vol.

<1%

Mohammad Khatami

$5,211,718 Vol.

<1%

Mohsen Araki

$290,143 Vol.

<1%

Nasir Hosseini

$263,923 Vol.

<1%

Ahmad Hosseini Khorasani

$313,447 Vol.

<1%

Ali Asghar Hejazi

$350,737 Vol.

<1%

Maryam Rajavi

$863,867 Vol.

<1%

Mustafa Hijri

$205,803 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.Mojtaba Khamenei’s appointment by the Assembly of Experts in March 2026, following his father Ali Khamenei’s assassination in late February U.S.-Israeli strikes, has positioned him as the incumbent supreme leader with strong institutional and IRGC backing. This rapid transition emphasized continuity during active conflict, despite Mojtaba’s lack of prior public office and the constitutional preference against hereditary succession. Trader consensus at 85% for him by year-end reflects expectations that the clerical and security establishment will sustain his authority through the ongoing war, even as he issues only written directives and remains out of public view while recovering from injuries. Lower probabilities for alternatives like Alireza Arafi or Masoud Pezeshkian stem from the absence of viable challenges or shifts in the Assembly’s decision. Health rumors persist but have not altered the formal leadership structure.

This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.

Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.

If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.

Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.

Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.

If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.

The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
Volume
$39,308,421
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Feb 28, 2026, 7:12 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.Mojtaba Khamenei’s appointment by the Assembly of Experts in March 2026, following his father Ali Khamenei’s assassination in late February U.S.-Israeli strikes, has positioned him as the incumbent supreme leader with strong institutional and IRGC backing. This rapid transition emphasized continuity during active conflict, despite Mojtaba’s lack of prior public office and the constitutional preference against hereditary succession. Trader consensus at 85% for him by year-end reflects expectations that the clerical and security establishment will sustain his authority through the ongoing war, even as he issues only written directives and remains out of public view while recovering from injuries. Lower probabilities for alternatives like Alireza Arafi or Masoud Pezeshkian stem from the absence of viable challenges or shifts in the Assembly’s decision. Health rumors persist but have not altered the formal leadership structure.

This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.

Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.

If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.

Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.

Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.

If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.

The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
Volume
$39,308,421
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Feb 28, 2026, 7:12 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...

Related

icon for Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?

Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?

4%
icon for Will Delcy Rodríguez be the de facto leader of Venezuela at the end of 2026?

Will Delcy Rodríguez be the de facto leader of Venezuela at the end of 2026?

94%
icon for Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

7%

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Iran leader end of 2026?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 32 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Mojtaba Khamenei" at 85%, followed by "No Head of State" at 5%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 85¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 85% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Iran leader end of 2026?" has generated $39.3 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Feb 28, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Iran leader end of 2026?," browse the 32 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Iran leader end of 2026?" is "Mojtaba Khamenei" at 85%, meaning the market assigns a 85% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "No Head of State" at 5%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Iran leader end of 2026?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.