**Internal power struggles within Iran's post-war leadership have fueled trader interest in any potential coup attempt.** Following the February 2026 U.S.-Israeli strikes that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and triggered succession, Mojtaba Khamenei assumed the role but has remained largely absent from public view. Hardline factions, including the Paydari Front, have accused President Masoud Pezeshkian, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, and Abbas Araghchi of a "soft coup" or "velvet coup" by negotiating a fragile U.S. truce, elevating the Supreme National Security Council, and sidelining parliament and revolutionary institutions. These claims peaked around July 2026 amid funeral tensions and public hostility toward negotiators. August 2026 appointments of hardline allies like Mohsen Rezaei to top security posts signal efforts to consolidate Mojtaba's authority amid economic strains and lingering protest risks. No verified military coup has materialized; developments center on factional maneuvering, diplomatic compliance, and risks of escalation or renewed unrest that could shift internal dynamics.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$2,126,845 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
December 31
15%
$2,126,845 Vol.
December 31
$85,620 Vol.
15%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.**Internal power struggles within Iran's post-war leadership have fueled trader interest in any potential coup attempt.** Following the February 2026 U.S.-Israeli strikes that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and triggered succession, Mojtaba Khamenei assumed the role but has remained largely absent from public view. Hardline factions, including the Paydari Front, have accused President Masoud Pezeshkian, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, and Abbas Araghchi of a "soft coup" or "velvet coup" by negotiating a fragile U.S. truce, elevating the Supreme National Security Council, and sidelining parliament and revolutionary institutions. These claims peaked around July 2026 amid funeral tensions and public hostility toward negotiators.
August 2026 appointments of hardline allies like Mohsen Rezaei to top security posts signal efforts to consolidate Mojtaba's authority amid economic strains and lingering protest risks. No verified military coup has materialized; developments center on factional maneuvering, diplomatic compliance, and risks of escalation or renewed unrest that could shift internal dynamics.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Jun 30, 2026, 5:13 PM ET
Volume
$2,126,845End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Jun 30, 2026, 5:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.**Internal power struggles within Iran's post-war leadership have fueled trader interest in any potential coup attempt.** Following the February 2026 U.S.-Israeli strikes that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and triggered succession, Mojtaba Khamenei assumed the role but has remained largely absent from public view. Hardline factions, including the Paydari Front, have accused President Masoud Pezeshkian, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, and Abbas Araghchi of a "soft coup" or "velvet coup" by negotiating a fragile U.S. truce, elevating the Supreme National Security Council, and sidelining parliament and revolutionary institutions. These claims peaked around July 2026 amid funeral tensions and public hostility toward negotiators.
August 2026 appointments of hardline allies like Mohsen Rezaei to top security posts signal efforts to consolidate Mojtaba's authority amid economic strains and lingering protest risks. No verified military coup has materialized; developments center on factional maneuvering, diplomatic compliance, and risks of escalation or renewed unrest that could shift internal dynamics.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$2,126,845End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Jun 30, 2026, 5:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Internal power struggles within Iran's post-war leadership have fueled trader interest in any potential coup attempt.** Following the February 2026 U.S.-Israeli strikes that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and triggered succession, Mojtaba Khamenei assumed the role but has remained largely absent from public view. Hardline factions, including the Paydari Front, have accused President Masoud Pezeshkian, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, and Abbas Araghchi of a "soft coup" or "velvet coup" by negotiating a fragile U.S. truce, elevating the Supreme National Security Council, and sidelining parliament and revolutionary institutions. These claims peaked around July 2026 amid funeral tensions and public hostility toward negotiators. August 2026 appointments of hardline allies like Mohsen Rezaei to top security posts signal efforts to consolidate Mojtaba's authority amid economic strains and lingering protest risks. No verified military coup has materialized; developments center on factional maneuvering, diplomatic compliance, and risks of escalation or renewed unrest that could shift internal dynamics.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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