Ukraine’s security services experienced heightened internal friction in early September 2026 when officers from the Main Directorate of Intelligence (HUR) and State Security Service (SBU) exchanged fire in Kyiv during an SBU operation tied to an alleged Russian-linked plot. The incident, which wounded several personnel, prompted President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to describe it as disgraceful and underscored ongoing strains within the wartime security apparatus. These tensions follow July 2026 protests and cabinet reshuffles that removed popular Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov and later replaced Armed Forces Commander Oleksandr Syrskyi, moves that exposed divisions over military strategy, procurement, and anti-corruption efforts. Martial law remains in effect, barring elections, while separate corruption investigations continue to target officials close to the administration. Traders assessing coup-related markets monitor these institutional rivalries, public demonstrations, and any verified plots against the government for signals of broader instability.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$169,817 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
December 31
6%
$169,817 Vol.
December 31
$151,981 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Ukraine at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Ukrainian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Ukrainian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Ukraine at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Ukrainian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Ukrainian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Ukraine’s security services experienced heightened internal friction in early September 2026 when officers from the Main Directorate of Intelligence (HUR) and State Security Service (SBU) exchanged fire in Kyiv during an SBU operation tied to an alleged Russian-linked plot. The incident, which wounded several personnel, prompted President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to describe it as disgraceful and underscored ongoing strains within the wartime security apparatus. These tensions follow July 2026 protests and cabinet reshuffles that removed popular Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov and later replaced Armed Forces Commander Oleksandr Syrskyi, moves that exposed divisions over military strategy, procurement, and anti-corruption efforts. Martial law remains in effect, barring elections, while separate corruption investigations continue to target officials close to the administration. Traders assessing coup-related markets monitor these institutional rivalries, public demonstrations, and any verified plots against the government for signals of broader instability.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Ukraine at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Ukrainian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Ukrainian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Ukrainian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Ukrainian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Jun 24, 2026, 8:28 PM ET
Volume
$169,817End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Jun 24, 2026, 8:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Ukraine at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Ukrainian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Ukrainian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Ukraine at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Ukrainian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Ukrainian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Ukraine’s security services experienced heightened internal friction in early September 2026 when officers from the Main Directorate of Intelligence (HUR) and State Security Service (SBU) exchanged fire in Kyiv during an SBU operation tied to an alleged Russian-linked plot. The incident, which wounded several personnel, prompted President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to describe it as disgraceful and underscored ongoing strains within the wartime security apparatus. These tensions follow July 2026 protests and cabinet reshuffles that removed popular Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov and later replaced Armed Forces Commander Oleksandr Syrskyi, moves that exposed divisions over military strategy, procurement, and anti-corruption efforts. Martial law remains in effect, barring elections, while separate corruption investigations continue to target officials close to the administration. Traders assessing coup-related markets monitor these institutional rivalries, public demonstrations, and any verified plots against the government for signals of broader instability.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Ukraine at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Ukrainian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Ukrainian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Ukrainian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Ukrainian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$169,817End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Jun 24, 2026, 8:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ukraine’s security services experienced heightened internal friction in early September 2026 when officers from the Main Directorate of Intelligence (HUR) and State Security Service (SBU) exchanged fire in Kyiv during an SBU operation tied to an alleged Russian-linked plot. The incident, which wounded several personnel, prompted President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to describe it as disgraceful and underscored ongoing strains within the wartime security apparatus. These tensions follow July 2026 protests and cabinet reshuffles that removed popular Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov and later replaced Armed Forces Commander Oleksandr Syrskyi, moves that exposed divisions over military strategy, procurement, and anti-corruption efforts. Martial law remains in effect, barring elections, while separate corruption investigations continue to target officials close to the administration. Traders assessing coup-related markets monitor these institutional rivalries, public demonstrations, and any verified plots against the government for signals of broader instability.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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