Extensive purges of the People’s Liberation Army under Xi Jinping, including the 2025–2026 removals of multiple Central Military Commission members such as Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli for alleged corruption and discipline violations, have consolidated party control over military leadership and eliminated potential sources of organized opposition. These actions, which have affected over 100 senior officers since 2022, align with preparations for the 2027 Party Congress and follow a pattern of investigations that have left few independent power centers intact. Periodic unverified social media rumors of coup plots or elite clashes in early 2026 lacked confirmation from official statements or credible reporting and coincided with purge announcements rather than independent events. Trader consensus reflected in the 96.5% implied probability on “No” draws from this demonstrated pattern of elite discipline, with only remote variables such as acute leadership health events or unforeseen external shocks potentially altering the trajectory before the December 31, 2026 resolution date.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated4% chance
$155,308 Vol.
$155,308 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
4% chance
$155,308 Vol.
$155,308 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Extensive purges of the People’s Liberation Army under Xi Jinping, including the 2025–2026 removals of multiple Central Military Commission members such as Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli for alleged corruption and discipline violations, have consolidated party control over military leadership and eliminated potential sources of organized opposition. These actions, which have affected over 100 senior officers since 2022, align with preparations for the 2027 Party Congress and follow a pattern of investigations that have left few independent power centers intact. Periodic unverified social media rumors of coup plots or elite clashes in early 2026 lacked confirmation from official statements or credible reporting and coincided with purge announcements rather than independent events. Trader consensus reflected in the 96.5% implied probability on “No” draws from this demonstrated pattern of elite discipline, with only remote variables such as acute leadership health events or unforeseen external shocks potentially altering the trajectory before the December 31, 2026 resolution date.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ET
Volume
$155,308End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Extensive purges of the People’s Liberation Army under Xi Jinping, including the 2025–2026 removals of multiple Central Military Commission members such as Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli for alleged corruption and discipline violations, have consolidated party control over military leadership and eliminated potential sources of organized opposition. These actions, which have affected over 100 senior officers since 2022, align with preparations for the 2027 Party Congress and follow a pattern of investigations that have left few independent power centers intact. Periodic unverified social media rumors of coup plots or elite clashes in early 2026 lacked confirmation from official statements or credible reporting and coincided with purge announcements rather than independent events. Trader consensus reflected in the 96.5% implied probability on “No” draws from this demonstrated pattern of elite discipline, with only remote variables such as acute leadership health events or unforeseen external shocks potentially altering the trajectory before the December 31, 2026 resolution date.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$155,308End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Extensive purges of the People’s Liberation Army under Xi Jinping, including the 2025–2026 removals of multiple Central Military Commission members such as Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli for alleged corruption and discipline violations, have consolidated party control over military leadership and eliminated potential sources of organized opposition. These actions, which have affected over 100 senior officers since 2022, align with preparations for the 2027 Party Congress and follow a pattern of investigations that have left few independent power centers intact. Periodic unverified social media rumors of coup plots or elite clashes in early 2026 lacked confirmation from official statements or credible reporting and coincided with purge announcements rather than independent events. Trader consensus reflected in the 96.5% implied probability on “No” draws from this demonstrated pattern of elite discipline, with only remote variables such as acute leadership health events or unforeseen external shocks potentially altering the trajectory before the December 31, 2026 resolution date.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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