**Internal divisions within Iran's post-war leadership are shaping trader focus on coup-related markets.** Following the February 2026 U.S.-Israeli strikes that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and the subsequent appointment of his son Mojtaba as successor, hardline factions including the Paydari Front have repeatedly accused President Masoud Pezeshkian, Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, and negotiators of a "soft coup" or "political coup." They claim these officials are sidelining the supreme leader—reportedly absent or incapacitated—by elevating the Supreme National Security Council at the expense of traditional clerical and parliamentary authority. Economic strain from sanctions and war damage, combined with U.S. Treasury statements in early September 2026 highlighting risks of public unrest or IRGC fractures, sustains speculation. Recent U.S. strikes and public calls for Iranians to "rise up" add external pressure, though no verified military takeover or coup attempt has materialized amid the fragile ceasefire and ongoing negotiations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$2,125,978 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
December 31
20%
$2,125,978 Vol.
December 31
$84,752 Vol.
20%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.**Internal divisions within Iran's post-war leadership are shaping trader focus on coup-related markets.** Following the February 2026 U.S.-Israeli strikes that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and the subsequent appointment of his son Mojtaba as successor, hardline factions including the Paydari Front have repeatedly accused President Masoud Pezeshkian, Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, and negotiators of a "soft coup" or "political coup." They claim these officials are sidelining the supreme leader—reportedly absent or incapacitated—by elevating the Supreme National Security Council at the expense of traditional clerical and parliamentary authority.
Economic strain from sanctions and war damage, combined with U.S. Treasury statements in early September 2026 highlighting risks of public unrest or IRGC fractures, sustains speculation. Recent U.S. strikes and public calls for Iranians to "rise up" add external pressure, though no verified military takeover or coup attempt has materialized amid the fragile ceasefire and ongoing negotiations.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Jun 30, 2026, 5:13 PM ET
Volume
$2,125,978End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Jun 30, 2026, 5:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.**Internal divisions within Iran's post-war leadership are shaping trader focus on coup-related markets.** Following the February 2026 U.S.-Israeli strikes that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and the subsequent appointment of his son Mojtaba as successor, hardline factions including the Paydari Front have repeatedly accused President Masoud Pezeshkian, Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, and negotiators of a "soft coup" or "political coup." They claim these officials are sidelining the supreme leader—reportedly absent or incapacitated—by elevating the Supreme National Security Council at the expense of traditional clerical and parliamentary authority.
Economic strain from sanctions and war damage, combined with U.S. Treasury statements in early September 2026 highlighting risks of public unrest or IRGC fractures, sustains speculation. Recent U.S. strikes and public calls for Iranians to "rise up" add external pressure, though no verified military takeover or coup attempt has materialized amid the fragile ceasefire and ongoing negotiations.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$2,125,978End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Jun 30, 2026, 5:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Internal divisions within Iran's post-war leadership are shaping trader focus on coup-related markets.** Following the February 2026 U.S.-Israeli strikes that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and the subsequent appointment of his son Mojtaba as successor, hardline factions including the Paydari Front have repeatedly accused President Masoud Pezeshkian, Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, and negotiators of a "soft coup" or "political coup." They claim these officials are sidelining the supreme leader—reportedly absent or incapacitated—by elevating the Supreme National Security Council at the expense of traditional clerical and parliamentary authority. Economic strain from sanctions and war damage, combined with U.S. Treasury statements in early September 2026 highlighting risks of public unrest or IRGC fractures, sustains speculation. Recent U.S. strikes and public calls for Iranians to "rise up" add external pressure, though no verified military takeover or coup attempt has materialized amid the fragile ceasefire and ongoing negotiations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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