Recent official forecasts from MetService-aligned sources and international models indicate a maximum temperature near 14°C in Wellington on September 6, driven by a northwest flow shifting to a cooler southerly change with widespread rain and winds exceeding 40 km/h. This setup aligns with typical early-spring patterns where frontal passages suppress daytime highs below seasonal averages around 15°C. Trader consensus favoring 15°C (52%) or 16°C (36%) over the lower 14°C outcome (8%) reflects lingering model spread in timing of the change and potential for brief warmer spells before the front arrives, with resolution hinging on the precise peak reading from official stations. Updated model runs overnight will likely refine these probabilities as landfall timing clarifies.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Wellington on September 6?
Highest temperature in Wellington on September 6?
15°C 65%
16°C 27%
14°C 5%
17°C 5%
NEW
$21,457 Vol.
NEW
$21,457 Vol.
Sep 6, 2026
9°C or below
<1%
10°C
<1%
11°C
<1%
12°C
<1%
13°C
<1%
14°C
5%
15°C
65%
16°C
27%
17°C
5%
18°C
1%
19°C or higher
<1%
15°C 65%
16°C 27%
14°C 5%
17°C 5%
NEW
$21,457 Vol.
NEW
$21,457 Vol.
Sep 6, 2026
9°C or below
$199 Vol.
<1%
10°C
$189 Vol.
<1%
11°C
$374 Vol.
<1%
12°C
$385 Vol.
<1%
13°C
$1,557 Vol.
<1%
14°C
$7,120 Vol.
5%
15°C
$4,987 Vol.
65%
16°C
$3,643 Vol.
27%
17°C
$1,743 Vol.
5%
18°C
$854 Vol.
1%
19°C or higher
$405 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent official forecasts from MetService-aligned sources and international models indicate a maximum temperature near 14°C in Wellington on September 6, driven by a northwest flow shifting to a cooler southerly change with widespread rain and winds exceeding 40 km/h. This setup aligns with typical early-spring patterns where frontal passages suppress daytime highs below seasonal averages around 15°C. Trader consensus favoring 15°C (52%) or 16°C (36%) over the lower 14°C outcome (8%) reflects lingering model spread in timing of the change and potential for brief warmer spells before the front arrives, with resolution hinging on the precise peak reading from official stations. Updated model runs overnight will likely refine these probabilities as landfall timing clarifies.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 4, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$21,457End Date
Sep 6, 2026Market Opened
Sep 4, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent official forecasts from MetService-aligned sources and international models indicate a maximum temperature near 14°C in Wellington on September 6, driven by a northwest flow shifting to a cooler southerly change with widespread rain and winds exceeding 40 km/h. This setup aligns with typical early-spring patterns where frontal passages suppress daytime highs below seasonal averages around 15°C. Trader consensus favoring 15°C (52%) or 16°C (36%) over the lower 14°C outcome (8%) reflects lingering model spread in timing of the change and potential for brief warmer spells before the front arrives, with resolution hinging on the precise peak reading from official stations. Updated model runs overnight will likely refine these probabilities as landfall timing clarifies.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$21,457End Date
Sep 6, 2026Market Opened
Sep 4, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent official forecasts from MetService-aligned sources and international models indicate a maximum temperature near 14°C in Wellington on September 6, driven by a northwest flow shifting to a cooler southerly change with widespread rain and winds exceeding 40 km/h. This setup aligns with typical early-spring patterns where frontal passages suppress daytime highs below seasonal averages around 15°C. Trader consensus favoring 15°C (52%) or 16°C (36%) over the lower 14°C outcome (8%) reflects lingering model spread in timing of the change and potential for brief warmer spells before the front arrives, with resolution hinging on the precise peak reading from official stations. Updated model runs overnight will likely refine these probabilities as landfall timing clarifies.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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