Recent forecasts from models including GFS indicate a westerly flow and increased cloud cover will limit daytime heating in Warsaw on September 6, supporting a maximum near 19°C under partly to mostly cloudy skies with light showers possible. This aligns with the market's leading 49.5% implied probability for 19°C and 28.5% for 20°C, reflecting trader consensus on modest warming potential if breaks in cloud allow greater insolation. Historical September averages near 20–22°C provide context, yet the current pattern favors the lower end of the range. Resolution hinges on official station readings, with any late-model shifts in wind or cloud timing able to tip the outcome between 18–20°C.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Warsaw on September 6?
Highest temperature in Warsaw on September 6?
19°C 52%
20°C 32%
18°C 14%
21°C 3%
NEW
NEW
Sep 6, 2026
14°C or below
<1%
15°C
1%
16°C
1%
17°C
2%
18°C
14%
19°C
52%
20°C
32%
21°C
3%
22°C
1%
23°C
<1%
24°C or higher
<1%
19°C 52%
20°C 32%
18°C 14%
21°C 3%
NEW
NEW
Sep 6, 2026
14°C or below
$139 Vol.
<1%
15°C
$577 Vol.
1%
16°C
$212 Vol.
1%
17°C
$609 Vol.
2%
18°C
$2,029 Vol.
14%
19°C
$1,325 Vol.
52%
20°C
$1,276 Vol.
32%
21°C
$235 Vol.
3%
22°C
$85 Vol.
1%
23°C
$213 Vol.
<1%
24°C or higher
$839 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from models including GFS indicate a westerly flow and increased cloud cover will limit daytime heating in Warsaw on September 6, supporting a maximum near 19°C under partly to mostly cloudy skies with light showers possible. This aligns with the market's leading 49.5% implied probability for 19°C and 28.5% for 20°C, reflecting trader consensus on modest warming potential if breaks in cloud allow greater insolation. Historical September averages near 20–22°C provide context, yet the current pattern favors the lower end of the range. Resolution hinges on official station readings, with any late-model shifts in wind or cloud timing able to tip the outcome between 18–20°C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 4, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$7,538End Date
Sep 6, 2026Market Opened
Sep 4, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwaResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from models including GFS indicate a westerly flow and increased cloud cover will limit daytime heating in Warsaw on September 6, supporting a maximum near 19°C under partly to mostly cloudy skies with light showers possible. This aligns with the market's leading 49.5% implied probability for 19°C and 28.5% for 20°C, reflecting trader consensus on modest warming potential if breaks in cloud allow greater insolation. Historical September averages near 20–22°C provide context, yet the current pattern favors the lower end of the range. Resolution hinges on official station readings, with any late-model shifts in wind or cloud timing able to tip the outcome between 18–20°C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$7,538End Date
Sep 6, 2026Market Opened
Sep 4, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwaResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from models including GFS indicate a westerly flow and increased cloud cover will limit daytime heating in Warsaw on September 6, supporting a maximum near 19°C under partly to mostly cloudy skies with light showers possible. This aligns with the market's leading 49.5% implied probability for 19°C and 28.5% for 20°C, reflecting trader consensus on modest warming potential if breaks in cloud allow greater insolation. Historical September averages near 20–22°C provide context, yet the current pattern favors the lower end of the range. Resolution hinges on official station readings, with any late-model shifts in wind or cloud timing able to tip the outcome between 18–20°C.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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