Official forecasts from the Chengdu Meteorological Bureau project a peak of 34°C on September 5 under predominantly clear to partly cloudy skies with light winds, aligning with the market’s 100% implied probability for that exact high. Recent model consensus and real-time observations show afternoon temperatures climbing steadily toward this threshold amid typical early-September “autumn tiger” conditions, with minimal precipitation risk and humidity levels supporting efficient daytime heating. This positioning reflects aggregated trader assessment of authoritative local data rather than a guarantee, as final resolution depends on the precise official maximum recorded at the primary station. Unexpected increases in cloud cover, shifts in wind patterns, or localized measurement variations could still produce a 33°C or 35°C outcome.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Chengdu on September 5?
Highest temperature in Chengdu on September 5?
34°C 100.0%
28°C or below <1%
29°C <1%
30°C <1%
$38,471 Vol.
$38,471 Vol.
Sep 5, 2026
28°C or below
No
29°C
No
30°C
No
31°C
No
32°C
No
33°C
No
34°C
Yes
35°C
No
36°C
No
37°C
No
38°C or higher
No
34°C 100.0%
28°C or below <1%
29°C <1%
30°C <1%
$38,471 Vol.
$38,471 Vol.
Sep 5, 2026
28°C or below
$1,156 Vol.
No
29°C
$2,114 Vol.
No
30°C
$879 Vol.
No
31°C
$1,666 Vol.
No
32°C
$3,769 Vol.
No
33°C
$4,734 Vol.
No
34°C
$7,820 Vol.
Yes
35°C
$6,188 Vol.
No
36°C
$3,868 Vol.
No
37°C
$1,409 Vol.
No
38°C or higher
$4,868 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Official forecasts from the Chengdu Meteorological Bureau project a peak of 34°C on September 5 under predominantly clear to partly cloudy skies with light winds, aligning with the market’s 100% implied probability for that exact high. Recent model consensus and real-time observations show afternoon temperatures climbing steadily toward this threshold amid typical early-September “autumn tiger” conditions, with minimal precipitation risk and humidity levels supporting efficient daytime heating. This positioning reflects aggregated trader assessment of authoritative local data rather than a guarantee, as final resolution depends on the precise official maximum recorded at the primary station. Unexpected increases in cloud cover, shifts in wind patterns, or localized measurement variations could still produce a 33°C or 35°C outcome.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 3, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$38,471End Date
Sep 5, 2026Market Opened
Sep 3, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuuResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Official forecasts from the Chengdu Meteorological Bureau project a peak of 34°C on September 5 under predominantly clear to partly cloudy skies with light winds, aligning with the market’s 100% implied probability for that exact high. Recent model consensus and real-time observations show afternoon temperatures climbing steadily toward this threshold amid typical early-September “autumn tiger” conditions, with minimal precipitation risk and humidity levels supporting efficient daytime heating. This positioning reflects aggregated trader assessment of authoritative local data rather than a guarantee, as final resolution depends on the precise official maximum recorded at the primary station. Unexpected increases in cloud cover, shifts in wind patterns, or localized measurement variations could still produce a 33°C or 35°C outcome.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$38,471End Date
Sep 5, 2026Market Opened
Sep 3, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuuResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Official forecasts from the Chengdu Meteorological Bureau project a peak of 34°C on September 5 under predominantly clear to partly cloudy skies with light winds, aligning with the market’s 100% implied probability for that exact high. Recent model consensus and real-time observations show afternoon temperatures climbing steadily toward this threshold amid typical early-September “autumn tiger” conditions, with minimal precipitation risk and humidity levels supporting efficient daytime heating. This positioning reflects aggregated trader assessment of authoritative local data rather than a guarantee, as final resolution depends on the precise official maximum recorded at the primary station. Unexpected increases in cloud cover, shifts in wind patterns, or localized measurement variations could still produce a 33°C or 35°C outcome.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions