U.S. military strikes in July 2026 targeted Iranian missile and coastal defense sites on Greater Tunb during the broader conflict with Iran, degrading some capabilities but leaving Tehran’s military and administrative control intact. Iran has continued to assert sovereignty through formal land registration deeds issued in late 2025, new missile deployments reported in September 2026, and ongoing IRGC presence on the island, which it seized in 1971 alongside Abu Musa and Lesser Tunb. The UAE and GCC have reiterated claims of occupation and called for negotiations or ICJ referral, including in recent summit statements, while historical diplomatic efforts have produced no shift in effective control. Ongoing regional tensions and the island’s role in Strait of Hormuz security keep the territorial dispute active, though no scheduled events or verified developments point to an imminent change in administration.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedGreater Tunb Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
Greater Tunb Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
$54,999 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
September 30
1%
$54,999 Vol.
September 30
$331 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Greater Tunb Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Greater Tunb Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Greater Tunb Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.U.S. military strikes in July 2026 targeted Iranian missile and coastal defense sites on Greater Tunb during the broader conflict with Iran, degrading some capabilities but leaving Tehran’s military and administrative control intact. Iran has continued to assert sovereignty through formal land registration deeds issued in late 2025, new missile deployments reported in September 2026, and ongoing IRGC presence on the island, which it seized in 1971 alongside Abu Musa and Lesser Tunb. The UAE and GCC have reiterated claims of occupation and called for negotiations or ICJ referral, including in recent summit statements, while historical diplomatic efforts have produced no shift in effective control. Ongoing regional tensions and the island’s role in Strait of Hormuz security keep the territorial dispute active, though no scheduled events or verified developments point to an imminent change in administration.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Greater Tunb Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Greater Tunb Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Greater Tunb Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Greater Tunb Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Greater Tunb Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Aug 26, 2026, 11:04 AM ET
Volume
$54,999End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 26, 2026, 11:04 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Greater Tunb Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Greater Tunb Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Greater Tunb Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.U.S. military strikes in July 2026 targeted Iranian missile and coastal defense sites on Greater Tunb during the broader conflict with Iran, degrading some capabilities but leaving Tehran’s military and administrative control intact. Iran has continued to assert sovereignty through formal land registration deeds issued in late 2025, new missile deployments reported in September 2026, and ongoing IRGC presence on the island, which it seized in 1971 alongside Abu Musa and Lesser Tunb. The UAE and GCC have reiterated claims of occupation and called for negotiations or ICJ referral, including in recent summit statements, while historical diplomatic efforts have produced no shift in effective control. Ongoing regional tensions and the island’s role in Strait of Hormuz security keep the territorial dispute active, though no scheduled events or verified developments point to an imminent change in administration.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Greater Tunb Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Greater Tunb Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Greater Tunb Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Greater Tunb Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Greater Tunb Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$54,999End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 26, 2026, 11:04 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...U.S. military strikes in July 2026 targeted Iranian missile and coastal defense sites on Greater Tunb during the broader conflict with Iran, degrading some capabilities but leaving Tehran’s military and administrative control intact. Iran has continued to assert sovereignty through formal land registration deeds issued in late 2025, new missile deployments reported in September 2026, and ongoing IRGC presence on the island, which it seized in 1971 alongside Abu Musa and Lesser Tunb. The UAE and GCC have reiterated claims of occupation and called for negotiations or ICJ referral, including in recent summit statements, while historical diplomatic efforts have produced no shift in effective control. Ongoing regional tensions and the island’s role in Strait of Hormuz security keep the territorial dispute active, though no scheduled events or verified developments point to an imminent change in administration.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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