Florida’s 9th Congressional District was redrawn in 2026 under a new map passed by the Republican-controlled legislature and signed by Governor DeSantis, shifting its composition toward more conservative areas including Indian River, Highlands, Okeechobee, and parts of Polk counties. This change altered the district’s baseline from Democratic-leaning to one favoring Republicans by double digits in recent presidential voting. Incumbent Democrat Darren Soto faces Republican nominee Dan Green, who narrowly won a crowded August 18 primary. A late-August internal poll showed the candidates tied at 41 percent with 18 percent undecided, yet trader consensus assigns the Republican side a 61 percent implied probability, reflecting the structural impact of redistricting on the general-election matchup ahead of November 3.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedFL-09 House Election Winner
FL-09 House Election Winner
$19,501 Vol.
$19,501 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Republican Party
62%
Democratic Party
37%
$19,501 Vol.
$19,501 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Republican Party
$11,419 Vol.
62%
Democratic Party
$8,082 Vol.
37%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Florida’s 9th Congressional District was redrawn in 2026 under a new map passed by the Republican-controlled legislature and signed by Governor DeSantis, shifting its composition toward more conservative areas including Indian River, Highlands, Okeechobee, and parts of Polk counties. This change altered the district’s baseline from Democratic-leaning to one favoring Republicans by double digits in recent presidential voting. Incumbent Democrat Darren Soto faces Republican nominee Dan Green, who narrowly won a crowded August 18 primary. A late-August internal poll showed the candidates tied at 41 percent with 18 percent undecided, yet trader consensus assigns the Republican side a 61 percent implied probability, reflecting the structural impact of redistricting on the general-election matchup ahead of November 3.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 10:37 AM ET
Volume
$19,501End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 10:37 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Florida’s 9th Congressional District was redrawn in 2026 under a new map passed by the Republican-controlled legislature and signed by Governor DeSantis, shifting its composition toward more conservative areas including Indian River, Highlands, Okeechobee, and parts of Polk counties. This change altered the district’s baseline from Democratic-leaning to one favoring Republicans by double digits in recent presidential voting. Incumbent Democrat Darren Soto faces Republican nominee Dan Green, who narrowly won a crowded August 18 primary. A late-August internal poll showed the candidates tied at 41 percent with 18 percent undecided, yet trader consensus assigns the Republican side a 61 percent implied probability, reflecting the structural impact of redistricting on the general-election matchup ahead of November 3.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$19,501End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 10:37 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Florida’s 9th Congressional District was redrawn in 2026 under a new map passed by the Republican-controlled legislature and signed by Governor DeSantis, shifting its composition toward more conservative areas including Indian River, Highlands, Okeechobee, and parts of Polk counties. This change altered the district’s baseline from Democratic-leaning to one favoring Republicans by double digits in recent presidential voting. Incumbent Democrat Darren Soto faces Republican nominee Dan Green, who narrowly won a crowded August 18 primary. A late-August internal poll showed the candidates tied at 41 percent with 18 percent undecided, yet trader consensus assigns the Republican side a 61 percent implied probability, reflecting the structural impact of redistricting on the general-election matchup ahead of November 3.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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