Escalating U.S.-Iran tensions in 2026 have centered on Kharg Island, which handles roughly 90 percent of Iranian crude exports and serves as a key node for shipments primarily to China, directly influencing global oil supply balances and benchmark prices. Recent U.S. strikes targeted military infrastructure on Kharg, Larak, and Greater Tunb while avoiding export facilities, amid threats of seizure and Iranian mine-laying efforts that briefly disrupted Strait of Hormuz traffic and prompted temporary export halts before partial resumption in June. These developments have elevated geopolitical risk premiums in energy markets, with trader focus on potential supply shocks, shipping costs, and any shifts in sanctions enforcement or interim deals that could alter control dynamics over the listed islands without resolving broader control questions.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedFarsi, Hengam, Hormuz or Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
Farsi, Hengam, Hormuz or Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
$136,381 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
September 30
2%
$136,381 Vol.
September 30
$83,605 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one of the specified islands is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The islands that will be considered for resolution are: Farsi Island, Hengam Island, Hormuz Island and Kharg Island.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over at least one of the specified islands, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over at least one of the specified islands is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.Escalating U.S.-Iran tensions in 2026 have centered on Kharg Island, which handles roughly 90 percent of Iranian crude exports and serves as a key node for shipments primarily to China, directly influencing global oil supply balances and benchmark prices. Recent U.S. strikes targeted military infrastructure on Kharg, Larak, and Greater Tunb while avoiding export facilities, amid threats of seizure and Iranian mine-laying efforts that briefly disrupted Strait of Hormuz traffic and prompted temporary export halts before partial resumption in June. These developments have elevated geopolitical risk premiums in energy markets, with trader focus on potential supply shocks, shipping costs, and any shifts in sanctions enforcement or interim deals that could alter control dynamics over the listed islands without resolving broader control questions.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one of the specified islands is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The islands that will be considered for resolution are: Farsi Island, Hengam Island, Hormuz Island and Kharg Island.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over at least one of the specified islands, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over at least one of the specified islands is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
The islands that will be considered for resolution are: Farsi Island, Hengam Island, Hormuz Island and Kharg Island.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over at least one of the specified islands, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over at least one of the specified islands is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Aug 4, 2026, 8:03 PM ET
Volume
$136,381End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 4, 2026, 8:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one of the specified islands is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The islands that will be considered for resolution are: Farsi Island, Hengam Island, Hormuz Island and Kharg Island.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over at least one of the specified islands, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over at least one of the specified islands is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.Escalating U.S.-Iran tensions in 2026 have centered on Kharg Island, which handles roughly 90 percent of Iranian crude exports and serves as a key node for shipments primarily to China, directly influencing global oil supply balances and benchmark prices. Recent U.S. strikes targeted military infrastructure on Kharg, Larak, and Greater Tunb while avoiding export facilities, amid threats of seizure and Iranian mine-laying efforts that briefly disrupted Strait of Hormuz traffic and prompted temporary export halts before partial resumption in June. These developments have elevated geopolitical risk premiums in energy markets, with trader focus on potential supply shocks, shipping costs, and any shifts in sanctions enforcement or interim deals that could alter control dynamics over the listed islands without resolving broader control questions.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one of the specified islands is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The islands that will be considered for resolution are: Farsi Island, Hengam Island, Hormuz Island and Kharg Island.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over at least one of the specified islands, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over at least one of the specified islands is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
The islands that will be considered for resolution are: Farsi Island, Hengam Island, Hormuz Island and Kharg Island.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over at least one of the specified islands, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over at least one of the specified islands is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$136,381End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 4, 2026, 8:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Escalating U.S.-Iran tensions in 2026 have centered on Kharg Island, which handles roughly 90 percent of Iranian crude exports and serves as a key node for shipments primarily to China, directly influencing global oil supply balances and benchmark prices. Recent U.S. strikes targeted military infrastructure on Kharg, Larak, and Greater Tunb while avoiding export facilities, amid threats of seizure and Iranian mine-laying efforts that briefly disrupted Strait of Hormuz traffic and prompted temporary export halts before partial resumption in June. These developments have elevated geopolitical risk premiums in energy markets, with trader focus on potential supply shocks, shipping costs, and any shifts in sanctions enforcement or interim deals that could alter control dynamics over the listed islands without resolving broader control questions.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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