The district's D+10 partisan lean and open-seat status after redistricting anchor trader consensus around a Democratic victory in the November 3 general election. Hilda Solis advanced from the June 2 top-two primary with 47.6% of the vote, well ahead of Republican Pedro Casas at 35.8%, reflecting her established name recognition as a former U.S. representative, Labor Secretary, and current Los Angeles County supervisor. Multiple nonpartisan forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Democratic, consistent with historical performance in similar California districts. Scenarios that could narrow the gap remain limited to major late developments such as candidate health issues, significant national partisan shifts, or unusually high Republican turnout that alters the effective margin.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedCA-38 House Election Winner
CA-38 House Election Winner
$63,867 Vol.
$63,867 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
95%
Republican Party
1%
$63,867 Vol.
$63,867 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
$32,206 Vol.
95%
Republican Party
$31,662 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-38 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The district's D+10 partisan lean and open-seat status after redistricting anchor trader consensus around a Democratic victory in the November 3 general election. Hilda Solis advanced from the June 2 top-two primary with 47.6% of the vote, well ahead of Republican Pedro Casas at 35.8%, reflecting her established name recognition as a former U.S. representative, Labor Secretary, and current Los Angeles County supervisor. Multiple nonpartisan forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Democratic, consistent with historical performance in similar California districts. Scenarios that could narrow the gap remain limited to major late developments such as candidate health issues, significant national partisan shifts, or unusually high Republican turnout that alters the effective margin.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-38 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$63,867End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-38 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The district's D+10 partisan lean and open-seat status after redistricting anchor trader consensus around a Democratic victory in the November 3 general election. Hilda Solis advanced from the June 2 top-two primary with 47.6% of the vote, well ahead of Republican Pedro Casas at 35.8%, reflecting her established name recognition as a former U.S. representative, Labor Secretary, and current Los Angeles County supervisor. Multiple nonpartisan forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Democratic, consistent with historical performance in similar California districts. Scenarios that could narrow the gap remain limited to major late developments such as candidate health issues, significant national partisan shifts, or unusually high Republican turnout that alters the effective margin.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-38 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$63,867End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The district's D+10 partisan lean and open-seat status after redistricting anchor trader consensus around a Democratic victory in the November 3 general election. Hilda Solis advanced from the June 2 top-two primary with 47.6% of the vote, well ahead of Republican Pedro Casas at 35.8%, reflecting her established name recognition as a former U.S. representative, Labor Secretary, and current Los Angeles County supervisor. Multiple nonpartisan forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Democratic, consistent with historical performance in similar California districts. Scenarios that could narrow the gap remain limited to major late developments such as candidate health issues, significant national partisan shifts, or unusually high Republican turnout that alters the effective margin.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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