Incumbent Democrat Kevin Mullin advanced from the June 2026 top-two primary in California's 15th congressional district with 65% of the vote, facing Republican Charles Hoelter in the November general election. The Bay Area district, covering much of San Mateo County, carries a Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+26 and has delivered consistent Democratic margins exceeding 70% in recent cycles. Multiple forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic, reflecting the district's partisan composition, Mullin's established incumbency, and limited Republican infrastructure. Trader consensus pricing aligns with these structural factors, though late developments such as a health event affecting the incumbent or an unforeseen national political shift could theoretically alter the trajectory before Election Day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedCA-15 House Election Winner
CA-15 House Election Winner
$122,350 Vol.
$122,350 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
96%
Republican Party
<1%
$122,350 Vol.
$122,350 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
$94,045 Vol.
96%
Republican Party
$28,305 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Kevin Mullin advanced from the June 2026 top-two primary in California's 15th congressional district with 65% of the vote, facing Republican Charles Hoelter in the November general election. The Bay Area district, covering much of San Mateo County, carries a Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+26 and has delivered consistent Democratic margins exceeding 70% in recent cycles. Multiple forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic, reflecting the district's partisan composition, Mullin's established incumbency, and limited Republican infrastructure. Trader consensus pricing aligns with these structural factors, though late developments such as a health event affecting the incumbent or an unforeseen national political shift could theoretically alter the trajectory before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ET
Volume
$122,350End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Kevin Mullin advanced from the June 2026 top-two primary in California's 15th congressional district with 65% of the vote, facing Republican Charles Hoelter in the November general election. The Bay Area district, covering much of San Mateo County, carries a Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+26 and has delivered consistent Democratic margins exceeding 70% in recent cycles. Multiple forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic, reflecting the district's partisan composition, Mullin's established incumbency, and limited Republican infrastructure. Trader consensus pricing aligns with these structural factors, though late developments such as a health event affecting the incumbent or an unforeseen national political shift could theoretically alter the trajectory before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$122,350End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Kevin Mullin advanced from the June 2026 top-two primary in California's 15th congressional district with 65% of the vote, facing Republican Charles Hoelter in the November general election. The Bay Area district, covering much of San Mateo County, carries a Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+26 and has delivered consistent Democratic margins exceeding 70% in recent cycles. Multiple forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic, reflecting the district's partisan composition, Mullin's established incumbency, and limited Republican infrastructure. Trader consensus pricing aligns with these structural factors, though late developments such as a health event affecting the incumbent or an unforeseen national political shift could theoretically alter the trajectory before Election Day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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