Redistricting under California's Proposition 50 shifted the 6th District toward a Democratic lean, incorporating more of Sacramento and surrounding areas while reducing its prior Republican tilt. Incumbent Kevin Kiley, who switched to no party preference after representing a neighboring seat, advanced from the June primary alongside Democrat Richard Pan in a top-two contest. Pan secured key labor endorsements and leads recent head-to-head polling in the district rated solid or likely Democratic by major forecasters. Traders price the Democratic nominee near 95 percent to prevail on November 3, reflecting the seat's partisan composition and primary results. A Kiley victory would require substantially stronger independent crossover support or turnout patterns that overcome the district's baseline Democratic edge.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedCA-06 House Election Winner
CA-06 House Election Winner
$49,897 Vol.
$49,897 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
95%
Republican Party
3%
$49,897 Vol.
$49,897 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
$25,535 Vol.
95%
Republican Party
$24,362 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Redistricting under California's Proposition 50 shifted the 6th District toward a Democratic lean, incorporating more of Sacramento and surrounding areas while reducing its prior Republican tilt. Incumbent Kevin Kiley, who switched to no party preference after representing a neighboring seat, advanced from the June primary alongside Democrat Richard Pan in a top-two contest. Pan secured key labor endorsements and leads recent head-to-head polling in the district rated solid or likely Democratic by major forecasters. Traders price the Democratic nominee near 95 percent to prevail on November 3, reflecting the seat's partisan composition and primary results. A Kiley victory would require substantially stronger independent crossover support or turnout patterns that overcome the district's baseline Democratic edge.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
Volume
$49,897End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Redistricting under California's Proposition 50 shifted the 6th District toward a Democratic lean, incorporating more of Sacramento and surrounding areas while reducing its prior Republican tilt. Incumbent Kevin Kiley, who switched to no party preference after representing a neighboring seat, advanced from the June primary alongside Democrat Richard Pan in a top-two contest. Pan secured key labor endorsements and leads recent head-to-head polling in the district rated solid or likely Democratic by major forecasters. Traders price the Democratic nominee near 95 percent to prevail on November 3, reflecting the seat's partisan composition and primary results. A Kiley victory would require substantially stronger independent crossover support or turnout patterns that overcome the district's baseline Democratic edge.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$49,897End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Redistricting under California's Proposition 50 shifted the 6th District toward a Democratic lean, incorporating more of Sacramento and surrounding areas while reducing its prior Republican tilt. Incumbent Kevin Kiley, who switched to no party preference after representing a neighboring seat, advanced from the June primary alongside Democrat Richard Pan in a top-two contest. Pan secured key labor endorsements and leads recent head-to-head polling in the district rated solid or likely Democratic by major forecasters. Traders price the Democratic nominee near 95 percent to prevail on November 3, reflecting the seat's partisan composition and primary results. A Kiley victory would require substantially stronger independent crossover support or turnout patterns that overcome the district's baseline Democratic edge.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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