Lula maintains a commanding lead in Maranhão for first place in the October 4 first round, backed by consistent state-level polling showing 58-60% support against 20-22% for Flávio Bolsonaro and single digits or less for remaining candidates. This positioning reflects the state's longstanding alignment with the PT in the Northeast, combined with Lula's federal government approval ratings above 60% and positive evaluations near 50% in recent surveys. High rejection levels for opponents further reinforce the gap. Traders price in limited volatility this close to the vote, though shifts remain possible if undecided voters (around 11-12%) or the 16% open to changing preferences move toward alternatives amid final campaign events or turnout patterns.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedBrazil Presidential Election First Round: 1st Place in Maranhão
Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 1st Place in Maranhão
Lula 98.2%
Ronaldo Caiado <1%
Flavio Bolsonaro <1%
Samara <1%
$11,996 Vol.
$11,996 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Lula
98%
Ronaldo Caiado
1%
Flavio Bolsonaro
1%
Samara
1%
Pablo Marçal
<1%
Hertz Dias
<1%
Renan Santos
<1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
<1%
Clariana Barao
<1%
Edmilson Costa
<1%
Escritor Augusto Cury
<1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
<1%
Zema
<1%
Lula 98.2%
Ronaldo Caiado <1%
Flavio Bolsonaro <1%
Samara <1%
$11,996 Vol.
$11,996 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Lula
$5,484 Vol.
98%
Ronaldo Caiado
$486 Vol.
1%
Flavio Bolsonaro
$638 Vol.
1%
Samara
$514 Vol.
1%
Pablo Marçal
$566 Vol.
<1%
Hertz Dias
$596 Vol.
<1%
Renan Santos
$533 Vol.
<1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
$514 Vol.
<1%
Clariana Barao
$596 Vol.
<1%
Edmilson Costa
$587 Vol.
<1%
Escritor Augusto Cury
$587 Vol.
<1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
$422 Vol.
<1%
Zema
$475 Vol.
<1%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Maranhão, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Maranhão.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Maranhão. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Lula maintains a commanding lead in Maranhão for first place in the October 4 first round, backed by consistent state-level polling showing 58-60% support against 20-22% for Flávio Bolsonaro and single digits or less for remaining candidates. This positioning reflects the state's longstanding alignment with the PT in the Northeast, combined with Lula's federal government approval ratings above 60% and positive evaluations near 50% in recent surveys. High rejection levels for opponents further reinforce the gap. Traders price in limited volatility this close to the vote, though shifts remain possible if undecided voters (around 11-12%) or the 16% open to changing preferences move toward alternatives amid final campaign events or turnout patterns.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Maranhão, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Maranhão.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Maranhão. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Maranhão.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Maranhão. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 6:30 AM ET
Volume
$11,996End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:30 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Maranhão, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Maranhão.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Maranhão. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Lula maintains a commanding lead in Maranhão for first place in the October 4 first round, backed by consistent state-level polling showing 58-60% support against 20-22% for Flávio Bolsonaro and single digits or less for remaining candidates. This positioning reflects the state's longstanding alignment with the PT in the Northeast, combined with Lula's federal government approval ratings above 60% and positive evaluations near 50% in recent surveys. High rejection levels for opponents further reinforce the gap. Traders price in limited volatility this close to the vote, though shifts remain possible if undecided voters (around 11-12%) or the 16% open to changing preferences move toward alternatives amid final campaign events or turnout patterns.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Maranhão, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Maranhão.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Maranhão. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Maranhão.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Maranhão. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$11,996End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:30 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Lula maintains a commanding lead in Maranhão for first place in the October 4 first round, backed by consistent state-level polling showing 58-60% support against 20-22% for Flávio Bolsonaro and single digits or less for remaining candidates. This positioning reflects the state's longstanding alignment with the PT in the Northeast, combined with Lula's federal government approval ratings above 60% and positive evaluations near 50% in recent surveys. High rejection levels for opponents further reinforce the gap. Traders price in limited volatility this close to the vote, though shifts remain possible if undecided voters (around 11-12%) or the 16% open to changing preferences move toward alternatives amid final campaign events or turnout patterns.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions