**Strong opposition from California Gov. Gavin Newsom, major Democratic-aligned groups including the teachers’ and medical associations, and heavy spending by billionaires on competing ballot measures have shaped trader views.** The initiative, backed by the SEIU-UHW union, would impose a one-time 5% tax on residents with net worth above roughly $1 billion (with a phase-in) to fund health care, education, and food assistance. It qualified for the November 3, 2026 ballot after signature gathering, but two rival measures funded by figures such as Sergey Brin aim to block or nullify new taxes on personal property or financial assets. These dynamics, combined with concerns over revenue volatility and out-migration, support the current 71.5% implied probability that the wealth tax will not pass.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated29% chance
$3,692,341 Vol.
$3,692,341 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
29% chance
$3,692,341 Vol.
$3,692,341 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
A one-time wealth tax on billionaires has been proposed to potentially appear on California's ballot for the November 3, 2026 general election. You can read more about that here: https://6abc.com/post/california-union-proposes-taxing-billionaires-offset-medicaid-cuts-low-income-people/18066430/
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any proposition containing a one-time tax targeting individuals, households, or family units with wealth, assets, or net worth of at least $1 billion (USD or equivalent) passes in the named election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If no qualifying ballot initiative is certified to appear on the official statewide California ballot as a proposition to be voted on in the stated election by June 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (the official cutoff date for new initiatives to be approved), or if all qualifying propositions/initiatives are removed from the ballot or amended before the election such that the main threshold drops below $1 billion, this market will resolve "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the State of California, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Strong opposition from California Gov. Gavin Newsom, major Democratic-aligned groups including the teachers’ and medical associations, and heavy spending by billionaires on competing ballot measures have shaped trader views.** The initiative, backed by the SEIU-UHW union, would impose a one-time 5% tax on residents with net worth above roughly $1 billion (with a phase-in) to fund health care, education, and food assistance. It qualified for the November 3, 2026 ballot after signature gathering, but two rival measures funded by figures such as Sergey Brin aim to block or nullify new taxes on personal property or financial assets. These dynamics, combined with concerns over revenue volatility and out-migration, support the current 71.5% implied probability that the wealth tax will not pass.
A one-time wealth tax on billionaires has been proposed to potentially appear on California's ballot for the November 3, 2026 general election. You can read more about that here: https://6abc.com/post/california-union-proposes-taxing-billionaires-offset-medicaid-cuts-low-income-people/18066430/
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any proposition containing a one-time tax targeting individuals, households, or family units with wealth, assets, or net worth of at least $1 billion (USD or equivalent) passes in the named election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If no qualifying ballot initiative is certified to appear on the official statewide California ballot as a proposition to be voted on in the stated election by June 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (the official cutoff date for new initiatives to be approved), or if all qualifying propositions/initiatives are removed from the ballot or amended before the election such that the main threshold drops below $1 billion, this market will resolve "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the State of California, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any proposition containing a one-time tax targeting individuals, households, or family units with wealth, assets, or net worth of at least $1 billion (USD or equivalent) passes in the named election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If no qualifying ballot initiative is certified to appear on the official statewide California ballot as a proposition to be voted on in the stated election by June 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (the official cutoff date for new initiatives to be approved), or if all qualifying propositions/initiatives are removed from the ballot or amended before the election such that the main threshold drops below $1 billion, this market will resolve "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the State of California, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Oct 24, 2025, 3:48 PM ET
Volume
$3,692,341End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Oct 24, 2025, 3:48 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...A one-time wealth tax on billionaires has been proposed to potentially appear on California's ballot for the November 3, 2026 general election. You can read more about that here: https://6abc.com/post/california-union-proposes-taxing-billionaires-offset-medicaid-cuts-low-income-people/18066430/
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any proposition containing a one-time tax targeting individuals, households, or family units with wealth, assets, or net worth of at least $1 billion (USD or equivalent) passes in the named election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If no qualifying ballot initiative is certified to appear on the official statewide California ballot as a proposition to be voted on in the stated election by June 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (the official cutoff date for new initiatives to be approved), or if all qualifying propositions/initiatives are removed from the ballot or amended before the election such that the main threshold drops below $1 billion, this market will resolve "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the State of California, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Strong opposition from California Gov. Gavin Newsom, major Democratic-aligned groups including the teachers’ and medical associations, and heavy spending by billionaires on competing ballot measures have shaped trader views.** The initiative, backed by the SEIU-UHW union, would impose a one-time 5% tax on residents with net worth above roughly $1 billion (with a phase-in) to fund health care, education, and food assistance. It qualified for the November 3, 2026 ballot after signature gathering, but two rival measures funded by figures such as Sergey Brin aim to block or nullify new taxes on personal property or financial assets. These dynamics, combined with concerns over revenue volatility and out-migration, support the current 71.5% implied probability that the wealth tax will not pass.
A one-time wealth tax on billionaires has been proposed to potentially appear on California's ballot for the November 3, 2026 general election. You can read more about that here: https://6abc.com/post/california-union-proposes-taxing-billionaires-offset-medicaid-cuts-low-income-people/18066430/
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any proposition containing a one-time tax targeting individuals, households, or family units with wealth, assets, or net worth of at least $1 billion (USD or equivalent) passes in the named election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If no qualifying ballot initiative is certified to appear on the official statewide California ballot as a proposition to be voted on in the stated election by June 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (the official cutoff date for new initiatives to be approved), or if all qualifying propositions/initiatives are removed from the ballot or amended before the election such that the main threshold drops below $1 billion, this market will resolve "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the State of California, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any proposition containing a one-time tax targeting individuals, households, or family units with wealth, assets, or net worth of at least $1 billion (USD or equivalent) passes in the named election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If no qualifying ballot initiative is certified to appear on the official statewide California ballot as a proposition to be voted on in the stated election by June 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (the official cutoff date for new initiatives to be approved), or if all qualifying propositions/initiatives are removed from the ballot or amended before the election such that the main threshold drops below $1 billion, this market will resolve "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the State of California, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$3,692,341End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Oct 24, 2025, 3:48 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Strong opposition from California Gov. Gavin Newsom, major Democratic-aligned groups including the teachers’ and medical associations, and heavy spending by billionaires on competing ballot measures have shaped trader views.** The initiative, backed by the SEIU-UHW union, would impose a one-time 5% tax on residents with net worth above roughly $1 billion (with a phase-in) to fund health care, education, and food assistance. It qualified for the November 3, 2026 ballot after signature gathering, but two rival measures funded by figures such as Sergey Brin aim to block or nullify new taxes on personal property or financial assets. These dynamics, combined with concerns over revenue volatility and out-migration, support the current 71.5% implied probability that the wealth tax will not pass.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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