**No country is positioned to trigger Article 50 withdrawal before the end of 2026.** Post-Brexit experience has reinforced the economic and political costs of departure, shifting most Euroskeptic parties—including in France, the Netherlands, and Italy—toward internal reform rather than exit campaigns. Recent Eurobarometer data show record-high recognition of membership benefits across the bloc, while major governing parties in Poland, Hungary, and elsewhere reject departure outright. Fringe proposals, such as Poland’s Confederation party discussing an EEA-style arrangement, lack parliamentary majorities or referendum mandates. The procedural timeline for notification, negotiation, and any potential completion further compresses the window. Trader consensus at 97.4% on “No” reflects these structural barriers and the absence of active exit processes. Late developments that could still shift odds include an unforeseen domestic political rupture prompting an immediate referendum in a member state, though even rapid notification would face formidable institutional and public hurdles within the remaining months.