**No known near-Earth objects carry trajectories capable of a 5 kt or larger atmospheric impact in the remaining months of 2026, underpinning the market’s 75.5% implied probability for “No.”** NASA’s CNEOS Sentry system and ESA risk lists show only distant, safe approaches by small meter-scale bodies, consistent with the low historical frequency of airbursts reaching this energy threshold. Recent detections, including multiple close passes in early September, have refined orbits without revealing new threats, while ongoing surveillance continues to rule out larger undiscovered impactors. Trader consensus reflects the statistical rarity of such events absent any cataloged hazards or anomalous fireball activity through year-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated5kt meteor strike in 2026?
5kt meteor strike in 2026?
25% chance
$313,717 Vol.
$313,717 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
25% chance
$313,717 Vol.
$313,717 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.**No known near-Earth objects carry trajectories capable of a 5 kt or larger atmospheric impact in the remaining months of 2026, underpinning the market’s 75.5% implied probability for “No.”** NASA’s CNEOS Sentry system and ESA risk lists show only distant, safe approaches by small meter-scale bodies, consistent with the low historical frequency of airbursts reaching this energy threshold. Recent detections, including multiple close passes in early September, have refined orbits without revealing new threats, while ongoing surveillance continues to rule out larger undiscovered impactors. Trader consensus reflects the statistical rarity of such events absent any cataloged hazards or anomalous fireball activity through year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Market Opened: Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ET
Volume
$313,717End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.**No known near-Earth objects carry trajectories capable of a 5 kt or larger atmospheric impact in the remaining months of 2026, underpinning the market’s 75.5% implied probability for “No.”** NASA’s CNEOS Sentry system and ESA risk lists show only distant, safe approaches by small meter-scale bodies, consistent with the low historical frequency of airbursts reaching this energy threshold. Recent detections, including multiple close passes in early September, have refined orbits without revealing new threats, while ongoing surveillance continues to rule out larger undiscovered impactors. Trader consensus reflects the statistical rarity of such events absent any cataloged hazards or anomalous fireball activity through year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Volume
$313,717End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**No known near-Earth objects carry trajectories capable of a 5 kt or larger atmospheric impact in the remaining months of 2026, underpinning the market’s 75.5% implied probability for “No.”** NASA’s CNEOS Sentry system and ESA risk lists show only distant, safe approaches by small meter-scale bodies, consistent with the low historical frequency of airbursts reaching this energy threshold. Recent detections, including multiple close passes in early September, have refined orbits without revealing new threats, while ongoing surveillance continues to rule out larger undiscovered impactors. Trader consensus reflects the statistical rarity of such events absent any cataloged hazards or anomalous fireball activity through year-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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