**The 86% implied probability that no corporate rate cut occurs before 2027 reflects the legislative record of 2025 and the compressed timeline remaining.** President Trump signed the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) on July 4, 2025, which permanently extended and modified several TCJA business provisions—including 100% bonus depreciation, R&D expensing, and interest deduction rules—while leaving the statutory corporate rate at 21%. Subsequent reporting through mid-2026 shows no new reconciliation vehicle or floor action advancing a rate reduction below that level. Congressional attention has turned to tariff implementation, regulatory changes, and budget matters, with the six months left in the resolution window offering limited scope for another major tax package. Historical patterns of tax reform timing and the scale of the prior overhaul support traders’ assessment that a headline rate cut is unlikely before the deadline.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated12% chance
$16,561 Vol.
$16,561 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
12% chance
$16,561 Vol.
$16,561 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald J. Trump, as President of the United States, signs into law a bill that lowers the corporate tax rate in the United States below 21% at any point by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Note that the cut does not need to go into effect before the resolution date - it just needs to be signed into law by then.
This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.
**The 86% implied probability that no corporate rate cut occurs before 2027 reflects the legislative record of 2025 and the compressed timeline remaining.** President Trump signed the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) on July 4, 2025, which permanently extended and modified several TCJA business provisions—including 100% bonus depreciation, R&D expensing, and interest deduction rules—while leaving the statutory corporate rate at 21%. Subsequent reporting through mid-2026 shows no new reconciliation vehicle or floor action advancing a rate reduction below that level. Congressional attention has turned to tariff implementation, regulatory changes, and budget matters, with the six months left in the resolution window offering limited scope for another major tax package. Historical patterns of tax reform timing and the scale of the prior overhaul support traders’ assessment that a headline rate cut is unlikely before the deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald J. Trump, as President of the United States, signs into law a bill that lowers the corporate tax rate in the United States below 21% at any point by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Note that the cut does not need to go into effect before the resolution date - it just needs to be signed into law by then.
This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.
Note that the cut does not need to go into effect before the resolution date - it just needs to be signed into law by then.
This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.
Market Opened: Nov 5, 2025, 1:03 PM ET
Volume
$16,561End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 1:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald J. Trump, as President of the United States, signs into law a bill that lowers the corporate tax rate in the United States below 21% at any point by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Note that the cut does not need to go into effect before the resolution date - it just needs to be signed into law by then.
This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.
**The 86% implied probability that no corporate rate cut occurs before 2027 reflects the legislative record of 2025 and the compressed timeline remaining.** President Trump signed the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) on July 4, 2025, which permanently extended and modified several TCJA business provisions—including 100% bonus depreciation, R&D expensing, and interest deduction rules—while leaving the statutory corporate rate at 21%. Subsequent reporting through mid-2026 shows no new reconciliation vehicle or floor action advancing a rate reduction below that level. Congressional attention has turned to tariff implementation, regulatory changes, and budget matters, with the six months left in the resolution window offering limited scope for another major tax package. Historical patterns of tax reform timing and the scale of the prior overhaul support traders’ assessment that a headline rate cut is unlikely before the deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald J. Trump, as President of the United States, signs into law a bill that lowers the corporate tax rate in the United States below 21% at any point by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Note that the cut does not need to go into effect before the resolution date - it just needs to be signed into law by then.
This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.
Note that the cut does not need to go into effect before the resolution date - it just needs to be signed into law by then.
This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.
Volume
$16,561End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 1:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**The 86% implied probability that no corporate rate cut occurs before 2027 reflects the legislative record of 2025 and the compressed timeline remaining.** President Trump signed the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) on July 4, 2025, which permanently extended and modified several TCJA business provisions—including 100% bonus depreciation, R&D expensing, and interest deduction rules—while leaving the statutory corporate rate at 21%. Subsequent reporting through mid-2026 shows no new reconciliation vehicle or floor action advancing a rate reduction below that level. Congressional attention has turned to tariff implementation, regulatory changes, and budget matters, with the six months left in the resolution window offering limited scope for another major tax package. Historical patterns of tax reform timing and the scale of the prior overhaul support traders’ assessment that a headline rate cut is unlikely before the deadline.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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