**A Supreme Court ruling in February 2026 restricting presidential tariff authority under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act sharply reduced projected customs revenues and triggered importer refund claims, undermining the fiscal basis for a tariff dividend.** No legislation authorizing payments has advanced through Congress, despite proposals such as the American Worker Rebate Act and repeated administration statements linking the idea to tariff receipts. Independent analyses consistently show estimated program costs of $300–600 billion exceeding expected 2026 tariff collections, even before legal setbacks. With the December 31, 2026, resolution deadline approaching and no formal program enacted via statute or executive action, traders assign overwhelming probability to “No.”
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated9% chance
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
9% chance
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump Administration formally creates (e.g., by signing federal legislation or performing executive action) a tariff dividend/rebate by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any bill signed into law or executive action taken within this market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the law or action goes into effect.
A qualifying payment of any amount distributed to any segment of individual US taxpayers will qualify as long as it is clearly attributed primarily to tariff revenue rather than a routine tax refund or credit.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.**A Supreme Court ruling in February 2026 restricting presidential tariff authority under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act sharply reduced projected customs revenues and triggered importer refund claims, undermining the fiscal basis for a tariff dividend.** No legislation authorizing payments has advanced through Congress, despite proposals such as the American Worker Rebate Act and repeated administration statements linking the idea to tariff receipts. Independent analyses consistently show estimated program costs of $300–600 billion exceeding expected 2026 tariff collections, even before legal setbacks. With the December 31, 2026, resolution deadline approaching and no formal program enacted via statute or executive action, traders assign overwhelming probability to “No.”
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump Administration formally creates (e.g., by signing federal legislation or performing executive action) a tariff dividend/rebate by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any bill signed into law or executive action taken within this market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the law or action goes into effect.
A qualifying payment of any amount distributed to any segment of individual US taxpayers will qualify as long as it is clearly attributed primarily to tariff revenue rather than a routine tax refund or credit.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Any bill signed into law or executive action taken within this market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the law or action goes into effect.
A qualifying payment of any amount distributed to any segment of individual US taxpayers will qualify as long as it is clearly attributed primarily to tariff revenue rather than a routine tax refund or credit.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Jun 29, 2026, 3:13 PM ET
Volume
$2,033End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Jun 29, 2026, 3:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump Administration formally creates (e.g., by signing federal legislation or performing executive action) a tariff dividend/rebate by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any bill signed into law or executive action taken within this market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the law or action goes into effect.
A qualifying payment of any amount distributed to any segment of individual US taxpayers will qualify as long as it is clearly attributed primarily to tariff revenue rather than a routine tax refund or credit.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.**A Supreme Court ruling in February 2026 restricting presidential tariff authority under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act sharply reduced projected customs revenues and triggered importer refund claims, undermining the fiscal basis for a tariff dividend.** No legislation authorizing payments has advanced through Congress, despite proposals such as the American Worker Rebate Act and repeated administration statements linking the idea to tariff receipts. Independent analyses consistently show estimated program costs of $300–600 billion exceeding expected 2026 tariff collections, even before legal setbacks. With the December 31, 2026, resolution deadline approaching and no formal program enacted via statute or executive action, traders assign overwhelming probability to “No.”
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump Administration formally creates (e.g., by signing federal legislation or performing executive action) a tariff dividend/rebate by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any bill signed into law or executive action taken within this market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the law or action goes into effect.
A qualifying payment of any amount distributed to any segment of individual US taxpayers will qualify as long as it is clearly attributed primarily to tariff revenue rather than a routine tax refund or credit.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Any bill signed into law or executive action taken within this market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the law or action goes into effect.
A qualifying payment of any amount distributed to any segment of individual US taxpayers will qualify as long as it is clearly attributed primarily to tariff revenue rather than a routine tax refund or credit.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$2,033End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Jun 29, 2026, 3:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**A Supreme Court ruling in February 2026 restricting presidential tariff authority under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act sharply reduced projected customs revenues and triggered importer refund claims, undermining the fiscal basis for a tariff dividend.** No legislation authorizing payments has advanced through Congress, despite proposals such as the American Worker Rebate Act and repeated administration statements linking the idea to tariff receipts. Independent analyses consistently show estimated program costs of $300–600 billion exceeding expected 2026 tariff collections, even before legal setbacks. With the December 31, 2026, resolution deadline approaching and no formal program enacted via statute or executive action, traders assign overwhelming probability to “No.”
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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