Recent observations show the 2026–27 El Niño already strengthening rapidly, with Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies exceeding +1.8°C and coupled ocean-atmosphere signals confirming an active event. Multi-model ensembles from NOAA, IRI, ECMWF, and WMO project a very strong peak (at least +2.0°C) during October–December or November–January with over 90% probability, and a 69% chance of historic intensity exceeding prior records on the Relative Oceanic Niño Index. This exceptional model consensus and unusually high oceanic heat content underpin the 92% market-implied odds for a super El Niño this winter. However, forecast spreads indicate realistic downside scenarios, such as slower intensification or earlier weakening, that could keep the peak below super thresholds despite current trajectories. The next CPC ENSO discussion on September 10 will provide updated model guidance.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWill there be a Super El Niño this winter (2026–27)?
Will there be a Super El Niño this winter (2026–27)?
92% chance
NEW
NEW
Mar 31, 2027
92% chance
NEW
NEW
Mar 31, 2027
This market will resolve "Yes" if NOAA's Climate Prediction Center reports a Regional Ocean Niño Index (RONI) value of +2.0°C or higher for any of the following seasons: ASO 2026, SON 2026, OND 2026, NDJ 2026-27, or DJF 2026-27, as reported in official NOAA CPC RONI updates, https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No".
A Super El Niño is an El Niño event in which RONI reaches this threshold for at least one overlapping ENSO season. An ENSO season is one of NOAA's standard overlapping 3-month periods (e.g., ASO, SON, OND, NDJ, DJF).
This market may resolve "Yes" immediately upon NOAA's first publication of a qualifying RONI value for any listed season. If no season has qualified, this market will not resolve "No" until NOAA publishes the DJF 2026-27 value since DJF captures El Niño's typical peak-strength window and an earlier "No" could contradict the final published data.
The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs this market's resolution; no subsequent revision to any season's value will be considered or will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published.Recent observations show the 2026–27 El Niño already strengthening rapidly, with Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies exceeding +1.8°C and coupled ocean-atmosphere signals confirming an active event. Multi-model ensembles from NOAA, IRI, ECMWF, and WMO project a very strong peak (at least +2.0°C) during October–December or November–January with over 90% probability, and a 69% chance of historic intensity exceeding prior records on the Relative Oceanic Niño Index. This exceptional model consensus and unusually high oceanic heat content underpin the 92% market-implied odds for a super El Niño this winter. However, forecast spreads indicate realistic downside scenarios, such as slower intensification or earlier weakening, that could keep the peak below super thresholds despite current trajectories. The next CPC ENSO discussion on September 10 will provide updated model guidance.
This market will resolve "Yes" if NOAA's Climate Prediction Center reports a Regional Ocean Niño Index (RONI) value of +2.0°C or higher for any of the following seasons: ASO 2026, SON 2026, OND 2026, NDJ 2026-27, or DJF 2026-27, as reported in official NOAA CPC RONI updates, https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No".
A Super El Niño is an El Niño event in which RONI reaches this threshold for at least one overlapping ENSO season. An ENSO season is one of NOAA's standard overlapping 3-month periods (e.g., ASO, SON, OND, NDJ, DJF).
This market may resolve "Yes" immediately upon NOAA's first publication of a qualifying RONI value for any listed season. If no season has qualified, this market will not resolve "No" until NOAA publishes the DJF 2026-27 value since DJF captures El Niño's typical peak-strength window and an earlier "No" could contradict the final published data.
The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs this market's resolution; no subsequent revision to any season's value will be considered or will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published.
A Super El Niño is an El Niño event in which RONI reaches this threshold for at least one overlapping ENSO season. An ENSO season is one of NOAA's standard overlapping 3-month periods (e.g., ASO, SON, OND, NDJ, DJF).
This market may resolve "Yes" immediately upon NOAA's first publication of a qualifying RONI value for any listed season. If no season has qualified, this market will not resolve "No" until NOAA publishes the DJF 2026-27 value since DJF captures El Niño's typical peak-strength window and an earlier "No" could contradict the final published data.
The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs this market's resolution; no subsequent revision to any season's value will be considered or will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published.
Market Opened: Jul 24, 2026, 12:34 PM ET
Volume
$7,666End Date
Apr 1, 2027Market Opened
Jul 24, 2026, 12:34 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve "Yes" if NOAA's Climate Prediction Center reports a Regional Ocean Niño Index (RONI) value of +2.0°C or higher for any of the following seasons: ASO 2026, SON 2026, OND 2026, NDJ 2026-27, or DJF 2026-27, as reported in official NOAA CPC RONI updates, https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No".
A Super El Niño is an El Niño event in which RONI reaches this threshold for at least one overlapping ENSO season. An ENSO season is one of NOAA's standard overlapping 3-month periods (e.g., ASO, SON, OND, NDJ, DJF).
This market may resolve "Yes" immediately upon NOAA's first publication of a qualifying RONI value for any listed season. If no season has qualified, this market will not resolve "No" until NOAA publishes the DJF 2026-27 value since DJF captures El Niño's typical peak-strength window and an earlier "No" could contradict the final published data.
The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs this market's resolution; no subsequent revision to any season's value will be considered or will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published.Recent observations show the 2026–27 El Niño already strengthening rapidly, with Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies exceeding +1.8°C and coupled ocean-atmosphere signals confirming an active event. Multi-model ensembles from NOAA, IRI, ECMWF, and WMO project a very strong peak (at least +2.0°C) during October–December or November–January with over 90% probability, and a 69% chance of historic intensity exceeding prior records on the Relative Oceanic Niño Index. This exceptional model consensus and unusually high oceanic heat content underpin the 92% market-implied odds for a super El Niño this winter. However, forecast spreads indicate realistic downside scenarios, such as slower intensification or earlier weakening, that could keep the peak below super thresholds despite current trajectories. The next CPC ENSO discussion on September 10 will provide updated model guidance.
This market will resolve "Yes" if NOAA's Climate Prediction Center reports a Regional Ocean Niño Index (RONI) value of +2.0°C or higher for any of the following seasons: ASO 2026, SON 2026, OND 2026, NDJ 2026-27, or DJF 2026-27, as reported in official NOAA CPC RONI updates, https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No".
A Super El Niño is an El Niño event in which RONI reaches this threshold for at least one overlapping ENSO season. An ENSO season is one of NOAA's standard overlapping 3-month periods (e.g., ASO, SON, OND, NDJ, DJF).
This market may resolve "Yes" immediately upon NOAA's first publication of a qualifying RONI value for any listed season. If no season has qualified, this market will not resolve "No" until NOAA publishes the DJF 2026-27 value since DJF captures El Niño's typical peak-strength window and an earlier "No" could contradict the final published data.
The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs this market's resolution; no subsequent revision to any season's value will be considered or will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published.
A Super El Niño is an El Niño event in which RONI reaches this threshold for at least one overlapping ENSO season. An ENSO season is one of NOAA's standard overlapping 3-month periods (e.g., ASO, SON, OND, NDJ, DJF).
This market may resolve "Yes" immediately upon NOAA's first publication of a qualifying RONI value for any listed season. If no season has qualified, this market will not resolve "No" until NOAA publishes the DJF 2026-27 value since DJF captures El Niño's typical peak-strength window and an earlier "No" could contradict the final published data.
The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs this market's resolution; no subsequent revision to any season's value will be considered or will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published.
Volume
$7,666End Date
Apr 1, 2027Market Opened
Jul 24, 2026, 12:34 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent observations show the 2026–27 El Niño already strengthening rapidly, with Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies exceeding +1.8°C and coupled ocean-atmosphere signals confirming an active event. Multi-model ensembles from NOAA, IRI, ECMWF, and WMO project a very strong peak (at least +2.0°C) during October–December or November–January with over 90% probability, and a 69% chance of historic intensity exceeding prior records on the Relative Oceanic Niño Index. This exceptional model consensus and unusually high oceanic heat content underpin the 92% market-implied odds for a super El Niño this winter. However, forecast spreads indicate realistic downside scenarios, such as slower intensification or earlier weakening, that could keep the peak below super thresholds despite current trajectories. The next CPC ENSO discussion on September 10 will provide updated model guidance.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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